TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142795
Played Sep 17Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119611116––
Valerii Hel
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Valerii Hel at 62.9%
71 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 3–5 Valerii Hel Vsevolod Kheresko has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:25What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Hel
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1212 vs Hel 1270
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 80% vs Hel 20%
Kheresko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 60% vs Hel 40%
Kheresko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +3 · Hel -2
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 2.75 / Hel 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Hel)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142795
Kheresko2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Hel1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 54 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKheresko3wins
AwayHel5wins
4 of 8 to a deciderHel leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko33.3%1 of 3
AwayHel60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko3Hel5n = 8Hel took 5 of 8
S2Kheresko3Hel5n = 8Hel took 5 of 8
S3Kheresko4Hel4n = 8split evenly
S4Kheresko5Hel2n = 7Kheresko took 5 of 7
S5Kheresko1Hel3n = 4Hel took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKhereskoHelK − HBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match41.140.6+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoHelBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 431 vs 125 / 22350.1%56.1%216 / 431 vs 125 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelKheresko 2.75/Hel 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.7%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 21 · 17:25V. Kheresko49101115672V. Hel551281311113
WJul 9 · 09:55V. Kheresko4291111113V. Hel30118741
LJun 14 · 12:55V. Kheresko35119871V. Hel4181111113
LFeb 5 · 08:55V. Kheresko239770V. Hel331111113
LFeb 4 · 17:25V. Kheresko3951281132V. Hel44111011393
WJan 29 · 05:55V. Kheresko521091111113V. Hel4212114692
WJan 28 · 12:55V. Kheresko4111811113V. Hel28311681
LJan 20 · 14:25V. Kheresko4811951492V. Hel527111112113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122WSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192WSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.91116116113V. Kheresko1.8081161152LSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113WSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:55V. Kheresko1.73781111162V. Salivonchyk2.00111178183
V. Hel10
LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171WSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123
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