TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126189
Played Sep 14Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71111811131171412
Illia Fokin
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:32 and never touched — 68.1% is still 68.1%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
68.1%
68.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 105 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 68.1%
105 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 9–7 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:32What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Kheresko
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1198 vs Fokin 1069
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 40% vs Fokin 20%
Kheresko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 50% vs Fokin 30%
Kheresko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +1 · Fokin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kheresko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 1.44 / Fokin 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Kheresko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13126189
Kheresko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 98 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 80 of 100
Fokin2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 34 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko8wins
AwayFokin2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKheresko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko87.5%7 of 8
AwayFokinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko8Fokin2n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S2Kheresko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S3Kheresko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kheresko8Fokin2n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S5Kheresko2Fokin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoFokinK − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.234.2+9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 429 vs 139 / 26249.9%53.1%214 / 429 vs 139 / 262Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoKheresko 1.44/Fokin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 14:55V. Kheresko4211911113I. Fokin28211781
WApr 30 · 10:55V. Kheresko4111811113I. Fokin28711281
WApr 29 · 17:25V. Kheresko46117611113I. Fokin4471111872
WApr 28 · 07:55V. Kheresko4011117113I. Fokin32391191
LApr 23 · 04:55V. Kheresko4791111972I. Fokin49117911113
WApr 22 · 18:55V. Kheresko4591411113I. Fokin321112181
WApr 14 · 13:25V. Kheresko49119711113I. Fokin4071111742
LMar 5 · 10:55V. Kheresko4311116872I. Fokin41261111113
WMar 4 · 18:25V. Kheresko3811511113I. Fokin26111771
WFeb 26 · 10:55V. Kheresko4111118113I. Fokin22331151
V. Kheresko10
WSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192WSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.91116116113V. Kheresko1.8081161152LSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113WSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:55V. Kheresko1.73781111162V. Salivonchyk2.00111178183WSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790
I. Fokin10
LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392WSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113LSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882LSep 13 · 17:55I. Fokin1.8071411592D. Belanchik1.911112711113LSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113WSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113
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