TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126424
Played Sep 14Finished
Hryhoriy Oliynyk
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
112113811811119
Vsevolod Kheresko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeHryhoriy Oliynyk to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHryhoriy Oliynyk above · Vsevolod Kheresko below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Hryhoriy Oliynyk at 64.5%
85 points played in total.
H2H Hryhoriy Oliynyk 4–1 Vsevolod Kheresko Vsevolod Kheresko has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Oliynyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Oliynyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Oliynyk 1261 vs Kheresko 1188
Oliynyk
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Oliynyk 40% vs Kheresko 60%
Kheresko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Oliynyk 40% vs Kheresko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Oliynyk -1 · Kheresko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Oliynyk) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOliynyk 1.44 / Kheresko 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Oliynyk)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13126424
Oliynyk1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 27 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Kheresko2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeOliynyk4wins
AwayKheresko1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderOliynyk leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOliynyk100%4 of 4
AwayKhereskon = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Oliynyk4Kheresko1n = 5Oliynyk took 4 of 5
S2Oliynyk4Kheresko1n = 5Oliynyk took 4 of 5
S3Oliynyk3Kheresko2n = 5Oliynyk took 3 of 5
S4Oliynyk2Kheresko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricOliynykKhereskoO − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match43.834.4+9.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOliynykKhereskoBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 222 vs 213 / 42851.8%49.8%115 / 222 vs 213 / 428Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.437.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OliynykOliynyk 1.44/Kheresko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Oliynyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Oliynyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk49111188113V. Kheresko3623111192
WSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk4211911113V. Kheresko33811861
WJul 22 · 05:55H. Oliynyk331111113V. Kheresko208570
WJul 8 · 04:55H. Oliynyk4511119143V. Kheresko409811121
LJun 1 · 07:25H. Oliynyk50121111882V. Kheresko43144311113
H. Oliynyk10
LSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113WSep 14 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.501111113V. Salivonchyk2.504780WSep 9 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.2811117113D. Belanchik3.50541131LSep 9 · 08:55H. Oliynyk2.3811511892V. Dobrovolskyi1.53911311113LSep 9 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.4411115492O. Maksymkiv2.63741111113LSep 9 · 05:55H. Oliynyk4.336780D. Kozoriz1.201111113LSep 9 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.678112101A. Didyk2.1011911123WSep 7 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.201111113M. Treschetka4.337780LSep 7 · 08:55H. Oliynyk1.289880O. Maksymkiv3.501111113WSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861
V. Kheresko10
WSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.91116116113V. Kheresko1.8081161152LSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113WSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:55V. Kheresko1.73781111162V. Salivonchyk2.00111178183WSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113LSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790LSep 8 · 17:25V. Kheresko2.10101181262S. Kryvoshyi1.671291110113LSep 7 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.5311911113V. Kheresko2.38811861
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