TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126151
Played Sep 14Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911116118118
Illia Fokin
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 91 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 63.3%
91 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 2–0 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 16h before this match
Treschetka beat Fokin 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1172 vs Fokin 1073
Treschetka
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 60% vs Fokin 20%
Treschetka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 30% vs Fokin 50%
Fokin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka +1 · Fokin -4
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Treschetka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.50 / Fokin 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Treschetka)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13126151
Treschetka1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 66 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it81% 48 of 59
Fokin2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 34 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTreschetka2wins
AwayFokin0wins
Treschetka leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTreschetkaFokinT − FBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match36.025.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 944 vs 138 / 25850.5%53.5%477 / 944 vs 138 / 258Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaTreschetka 1.50/Fokin 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 13 · 13:25M. Treschetka3911116113I. Fokin34791171
WApr 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka331111113I. Fokin164840
M. Treschetka10
WSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113WSep 13 · 15:25O. Sapuzhak2.50913611M. Treschetka1.50111111113WSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113LSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 7 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.201111113M. Treschetka4.337780LSep 7 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.2091111582V. Kheresko1.61113411113LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113LSep 7 · 06:55M. Treschetka1.404911111O. Maksymkiv2.7511116133LSep 7 · 04:55M. Treschetka4.338670S. Kryvoshyi1.201111113
I. Fokin10
LSep 13 · 17:55I. Fokin1.8071411592D. Belanchik1.911112711113LSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113WSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 09:55I. Fokin1.17611117113O. Bolnyh4.5011971192WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123LSep 10 · 05:55M. Dunas2.6311129113I. Fokin1.442101141WSep 10 · 04:55A. Nikolenko1.80111061192I. Fokin1.91812113113
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