TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142721
Played Sep 17Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119115911115––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeVsevolod Kheresko to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 72 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Vsevolod Kheresko at 64.4%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 10–7 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kheresko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-7 in 17
Kheresko
Correct
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1205 vs Fokin 1071
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 60% vs Fokin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 60% vs Fokin 40%
Kheresko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +2 · Fokin +3
Fokin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kheresko) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 1.44 / Fokin 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Kheresko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13142721
Kheresko1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 100 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it95% 61 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it80% 80 of 100
Fokin2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko8wins
AwayFokin2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKheresko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko85.7%6 of 7
AwayFokin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko7Fokin3n = 10Kheresko took 7 of 10
S2Kheresko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S3Kheresko5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S4Kheresko8Fokin2n = 10Kheresko took 8 of 10
S5Kheresko3Fokin2n = 5Kheresko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoFokinK − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.537.1+7.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 430 vs 142 / 26850%53%215 / 430 vs 142 / 268Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhereskoKheresko 1.44/Fokin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.1%
Kheresko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko547111111143I. Fokin51118137122
WSep 13 · 14:55V. Kheresko4211911113I. Fokin28211781
WApr 30 · 10:55V. Kheresko4111811113I. Fokin28711281
WApr 29 · 17:25V. Kheresko46117611113I. Fokin4471111872
WApr 28 · 07:55V. Kheresko4011117113I. Fokin32391191
LApr 23 · 04:55V. Kheresko4791111972I. Fokin49117911113
WApr 22 · 18:55V. Kheresko4591411113I. Fokin321112181
WApr 14 · 13:25V. Kheresko49119711113I. Fokin4071111742
LMar 5 · 10:55V. Kheresko4311116872I. Fokin41261111113
WMar 4 · 18:25V. Kheresko3811511113I. Fokin26111771
V. Kheresko10
WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122WSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192WSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.91116116113V. Kheresko1.8081161152LSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113WSep 13 · 16:55D. Belanchik2.38116881V. Kheresko1.5381111113WSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113LSep 13 · 13:55V. Kheresko1.73781111162V. Salivonchyk2.00111178183WSep 13 · 12:55O. Sapuzhak3.50311661V. Kheresko1.2811911113
I. Fokin10
LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113
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