TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136725
Played Sep 16Finished
Viktor Ivanytskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911810––––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Ivanytskyi above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-10
Point 60 set 3, 8-10 — our read held Illia Fokin at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Ivanytskyi 9–11 Illia Fokin Viktor Ivanytskyi has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Fokin
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ivanytskyi 1098 vs Fokin 1055
Ivanytskyi
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ivanytskyi 40% vs Fokin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ivanytskyi 60% vs Fokin 30%
Ivanytskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ivanytskyi +2 · Fokin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsIvanytskyi 1.91 / Fokin 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Fokin)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13136725
Ivanytskyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog40% won 23 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back31% 13 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back22% 5 of 23
Fokin1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 56 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 46 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeIvanytskyi4wins
AwayFokin6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeIvanytskyi80%4 of 5
AwayFokin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ivanytskyi5Fokin5n = 10split evenly
S2Ivanytskyi4Fokin6n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S3Ivanytskyi4Fokin6n = 10Fokin took 6 of 10
S4Ivanytskyi4Fokin4n = 8split evenly
S5Ivanytskyi2Fokin2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricIvanytskyiFokinI − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.340.7−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricIvanytskyiFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 183 vs 141 / 26760.1%52.8%110 / 183 vs 141 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinIvanytskyi 1.91/Fokin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi29611661I. Fokin4211911113
LSep 9 · 15:25V. Ivanytskyi31491171I. Fokin4211119113
LAug 21 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi44111071152I. Fokin47912114113
WAug 14 · 17:25V. Ivanytskyi47119511113I. Fokin4471111692
LAug 11 · 05:55V. Ivanytskyi31681161I. Fokin4011117113
WAug 10 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi51111369123I. Fokin507111111102
WJul 23 · 04:55V. Ivanytskyi4713911143I. Fokin3911115121
WJul 22 · 18:25V. Ivanytskyi351112123I. Fokin24410100
LJul 16 · 10:25V. Ivanytskyi205690I. Fokin331111113
LJul 7 · 10:05V. Ivanytskyi48711101192I. Fokin46113129113
V. Ivanytskyi10
WSep 16 · 16:55A. Nikolenko3.00611111112V. Ivanytskyi1.36118115133WSep 16 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi2.2549111162V. Ivanytskyi1.57111152113LSep 16 · 13:55V. Ivanytskyi1.73119591M. Dunas2.0081111113LSep 16 · 12:55Y. Shcherbak3.00101111113V. Ivanytskyi1.36128891LSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113WSep 10 · 09:25A. Nikolenko2.63115791V. Ivanytskyi1.4491111113WSep 10 · 07:25M. Dunas1.7341190V. Ivanytskyi2.001113113WSep 10 · 06:25V. Ivanytskyi1.141111113O. Bolnyh5.008840WSep 10 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.917690V. Ivanytskyi1.801111113LSep 9 · 18:55M. Dunas1.8011811133V. Ivanytskyi1.918118111
I. Fokin10
WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392WSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113LSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882WSep 10 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi2.00611661I. Fokin1.7311911113
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