TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136516
Played Sep 16Finished
Yuriy Shcherbak
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119511116911611
Illia Fokin
Away
1.22
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:37 and never touched — 81.0% is still 81.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
81.0%
81.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYuriy Shcherbak above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Illia Fokin at 81.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Yuriy Shcherbak 5–16 Illia Fokin Yuriy Shcherbak has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:37What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Fokin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Fokin
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Shcherbak 941 vs Fokin 1036
Fokin
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Shcherbak 40% vs Fokin 0%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Shcherbak 50% vs Fokin 10%
Shcherbak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Shcherbak -1 · Fokin -5
Fokin
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Fokin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (0%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsShcherbak 4.00 / Fokin 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Fokin)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136516
Shcherbak4.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 22 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 49
Fokin1.22
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 56 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 46 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeShcherbak2wins
AwayFokin8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeShcherbakn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Shcherbak1Fokin9n = 10Fokin took 9 of 10
S2Shcherbak2Fokin8n = 10Fokin took 8 of 10
S3Shcherbak2Fokin8n = 10Fokin took 8 of 10
S4Shcherbak2Fokin3n = 5Fokin took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricShcherbakFokinS − FBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match31.239.5−8.3per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricShcherbakFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime141 / 259 vs 139 / 26554.4%52.5%141 / 259 vs 139 / 265Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.238.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinShcherbak 4.00/Fokin 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 11:55Y. Shcherbak48712511133I. Fokin521110119112
LAug 15 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak239770I. Fokin331111113
LAug 14 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak216960I. Fokin331111113
LAug 11 · 10:25Y. Shcherbak2051050I. Fokin341112113
LAug 10 · 13:25Y. Shcherbak2610790I. Fokin341211113
LJul 23 · 11:25Y. Shcherbak30611671I. Fokin4111811113
LJul 22 · 13:55Y. Shcherbak29108110I. Fokin361211133
LJul 16 · 04:25Y. Shcherbak34591191I. Fokin4011117113
LJul 7 · 04:35Y. Shcherbak30117751I. Fokin4291111113
WJun 12 · 06:25Y. Shcherbak51691111143I. Fokin50111197122
Y. Shcherbak10
LSep 16 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi1.5011119113Y. Shcherbak2.50771121LSep 16 · 14:25A. Nikolenko1.131111113Y. Shcherbak5.502590WSep 16 · 12:55Y. Shcherbak3.00101111113V. Ivanytskyi1.36128891LAug 30 · 11:25V. Ivanytskyi1.441111113Y. Shcherbak2.638980LAug 30 · 09:55Y. Shcherbak1.36971191P. Melnichuk3.0011115113WAug 30 · 07:55V. Sydorchuk4.00119118112Y. Shcherbak1.22811511133WAug 30 · 05:55O. Bolnyh4.50451151Y. Shcherbak1.1711113113WAug 30 · 04:55P. Chyzh2.00119591Y. Shcherbak1.7371111113LAug 29 · 17:55Y. Melnyk1.251111118123Y. Shcherbak3.75136711102LAug 29 · 16:55Y. Shcherbak1.17611711112V. Sydorchuk4.50119112133
I. Fokin10
LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392WSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113LSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882LSep 13 · 17:55I. Fokin1.8071411592D. Belanchik1.911112711113LSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113LSep 13 · 14:55I. Fokin2.38211781V. Kheresko1.5311911113
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