TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136430
Played Sep 16Finished
Oleksandr Maslovskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161210111––––
Illia Fokin
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:25 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Maslovskyi above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-1
Point 51 set 3, 11-1 — our read held Illia Fokin at 63.6%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Maslovskyi 4–8 Illia Fokin Oleksandr Maslovskyi has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:25What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Fokin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Fokin
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maslovskyi 1068 vs Fokin 1049
Maslovskyi
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maslovskyi 80% vs Fokin 20%
Maslovskyi
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maslovskyi 50% vs Fokin 10%
Maslovskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maslovskyi +3 · Fokin -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Fokin) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaslovskyi 2.20 / Fokin 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Fokin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136430
Maslovskyi2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 63 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back20% 29 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 81
Fokin1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 56 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it84% 32 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it73% 46 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaslovskyi3wins
AwayFokin7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderFokin leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaslovskyin = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayFokin70%7 of 10
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maslovskyi0Fokin10n = 10Fokin took 10 of 10
S2Maslovskyi3Fokin7n = 10Fokin took 7 of 10
S3Maslovskyi6Fokin4n = 10Maslovskyi took 6 of 10
S4Maslovskyi5Fokin3n = 8Maslovskyi took 5 of 8
S5Maslovskyi3Fokin3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMaslovskyiFokinM − FBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set010−10of 10Avg pointsper match41.243.9−2.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMaslovskyiFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 853 vs 139 / 26449.9%52.7%426 / 853 vs 139 / 264Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FokinMaslovskyi 2.20/Fokin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Fokin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Maslovskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi348115101I. Fokin4211811123
LSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi34871181I. Fokin3811115113
LAug 19 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi511091111102I. Fokin48121158123
LMay 23 · 04:55O. Maslovskyi48811711112I. Fokin45115115133
WMay 9 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi46671111113I. Fokin4011113782
LApr 23 · 09:25O. Maslovskyi2559110I. Fokin351111133
LApr 22 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2111640I. Fokin351311113
LApr 14 · 15:25O. Maslovskyi4371113392I. Fokin501161111113
WMar 28 · 07:25O. Maslovskyi6113111111153I. Fokin57151397132
WMar 27 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi49491411113I. Fokin49111112962
O. Maslovskyi10
WSep 16 · 11:55O. Maslovskyi1.671110112113M. Dunas2.1061271192WSep 10 · 10:55O. Maslovskyi1.1711129113O. Bolnyh4.509101151WSep 10 · 08:55M. Dunas2.006211121O. Maslovskyi1.7311116143LSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123WSep 10 · 06:55A. Nikolenko2.7511115512O. Maslovskyi1.40591111113LSep 10 · 05:25O. Maslovskyi1.917690V. Ivanytskyi1.801111113LSep 9 · 17:55O. Maslovskyi1.366116101A. Nikolenko3.0011411123LSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113WSep 9 · 14:55O. Maslovskyi1.8312613113M. Dunas1.8310111131LSep 9 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi1.678930V. Ivanytskyi2.101111113
I. Fokin10
LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392WSep 14 · 05:55H. Oliynyk1.61116951I. Fokin2.2051111113LSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882LSep 13 · 17:55I. Fokin1.8071411592D. Belanchik1.911112711113LSep 13 · 16:25I. Fokin2.101051271O. Sapuzhak1.67121110113WSep 10 · 07:55O. Maslovskyi2.258115101I. Fokin1.5711811123WSep 9 · 16:25O. Maslovskyi2.00871181I. Fokin1.7311115113
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