TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142073
Played Sep 17Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012711114611––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Valerii Hel at 62.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 2–1 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1256 vs Fokin 1055
Hel
Wrong
both rated, 201 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 20% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 30% vs Fokin 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -3 · Fokin -2
Hel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.50 / Fokin 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Hel)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13142073
Hel1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 54 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Fokin2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHel2wins
AwayFokin1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHel leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel1Fokin2n = 3Fokin took 2 of 3
S2Hel1Fokin2n = 3Fokin took 2 of 3
S3Hel1Fokin2n = 3Fokin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricHelFokinH − FBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match39.738.3+1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 224 vs 142 / 27055.8%52.6%125 / 224 vs 142 / 270Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelHel 1.50/Fokin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LFeb 5 · 11:55V. Hel2231090I. Fokin341112113
WFeb 4 · 15:55V. Hel521011911113I. Fokin4612811962
WJan 29 · 09:25V. Hel45131011113I. Fokin351112571
V. Hel10
LSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762LSep 15 · 17:25S. Kryvoshyi2.0011117113V. Hel1.73771171
I. Fokin10
LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192LSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143LSep 14 · 07:55M. Vivatenko1.731111411113I. Fokin2.0077111392
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