TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136456
Played Sep 16Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
81112101141412––
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:27 and never touched — 63.6% is still 63.6%
Graded at full timeDanylo Kasian to win
63.6%
63.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 82 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Danylo Kasian at 63.6%
82 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 1–1 Danylo Kasian Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:27What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kasian
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1207 vs Kasian 1371
Kasian
Wrong
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Kasian 100%
Kasian
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 30% vs Kasian 90%
Kasian
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Kasian +5
Kasian
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasian form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.50 / Kasian 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Kasian)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13136456
Melnik2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 36 of 121
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 52
Kasian1.50
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 15 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelnik1wins
AwayKasian1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricMelnikKasianM − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match38.037.0+1.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime171 / 367 vs 40 / 6746.6%59.7%171 / 367 vs 40 / 67Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianMelnik 2.50/Kasian 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik28126100D. Kasian371411123
WAug 13 · 15:25O. Melnik48611911113D. Kasian3711511732
O. Melnik10
LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123LSep 15 · 15:55O. Melnik2.385116101V. Hel1.5311411123LSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:25O. Melnik3.25117641S. Kryvoshyi1.3381111113WSep 2 · 11:25O. Melnik1.73118117113V. Kheresko2.0081181192
D. Kasian10
WSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113WSep 16 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.758950D. Kasian1.401111113WSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 04:25S. Kryvoshyi2.2574100D. Kasian1.571111123WSep 15 · 18:55D. Kasian1.801111113S. Kryvoshyi1.917980WSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123WSep 15 · 14:55O. Maksymkiv2.205650D. Kasian1.611111113LSep 15 · 13:55D. Kasian2.1051180V. Hel1.671113113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WAug 25 · 18:25D. Kasian3.001011116123V. Kheresko1.36128811102
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.