TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142855
Played Sep 17Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119711119116––
Illia Fokin
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeIllia Fokin to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Illia Fokin at 56.0%
75 points played in total.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:21What took a side0 for · 2 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1219 vs Fokin 1089
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Fokin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Fokin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -1 · Fokin +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.30 / Fokin 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Melnik)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13142855
Melnik1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite75% won 45 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Fokin3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 368 vs 144 / 27246.7%52.9%172 / 368 vs 144 / 272Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.30/Fokin 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melnik won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Melnik10
LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113
I. Fokin10
WSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361WSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192LSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122
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