TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142871
Played Sep 17Finished
Illia Fokin
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113114113116––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingIllia Fokin above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 66.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Illia Fokin 2–5 Oleh Maksymkiv Illia Fokin has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:45What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fokin 1073 vs Maksymkiv 1187
Maksymkiv
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fokin 60% vs Maksymkiv 40%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fokin 40% vs Maksymkiv 20%
Fokin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fokin +1 · Maksymkiv -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Maksymkiv)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFokin 2.63 / Maksymkiv 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13142871
Fokin2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 32 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Maksymkiv1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 120 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it79% 81 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeFokin2wins
AwayMaksymkiv5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFokinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMaksymkiv100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fokin2Maksymkiv5n = 7Maksymkiv took 5 of 7
S2Fokin4Maksymkiv3n = 7Fokin took 4 of 7
S3Fokin2Maksymkiv5n = 7Maksymkiv took 5 of 7
S4Fokin2Maksymkiv1n = 3Fokin took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricFokinMaksymkivF − MBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.937.9−4.0per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFokinMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 271 vs 384 / 74052.8%51.9%143 / 271 vs 384 / 740Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivFokin 2.63/Maksymkiv 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fokin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 28 · 11:25I. Fokin51131116113O. Maksymkiv411161861
LApr 15 · 08:25I. Fokin4391111662O. Maksymkiv51119911113
LMar 28 · 09:25I. Fokin229850O. Maksymkiv331111113
LMar 19 · 11:55I. Fokin219750O. Maksymkiv331111113
WMar 4 · 12:55I. Fokin341211113O. Maksymkiv2210570
LFeb 12 · 07:25I. Fokin43111711132O. Maksymkiv50119114153
LFeb 11 · 18:25I. Fokin2391130O. Maksymkiv351113113
I. Fokin10
WSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192LSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010LSep 16 · 12:25A. Nikolenko2.0011128123I. Fokin1.7341011101LSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122LSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133LSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840WSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113LSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113LSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113
Upcoming Matches
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