TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142810
Played Sep 17Finished
Vsevolod Kheresko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
10121412114112––
Orest Melnik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVsevolod Kheresko above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 76 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Orest Melnik at 54.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Vsevolod Kheresko 4–10 Orest Melnik Vsevolod Kheresko has won 4 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-10 in 14
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 6 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kheresko 1235 vs Melnik 1230
Kheresko
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kheresko 100% vs Melnik 60%
Kheresko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kheresko 70% vs Melnik 50%
Kheresko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kheresko +5 · Melnik +1
Kheresko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kheresko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKheresko 2.00 / Melnik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melnik)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13142810
Kheresko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 52 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back20% 16 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 41
Melnik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite75% won 45 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKheresko4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKheresko66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kheresko6Melnik4n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S2Kheresko6Melnik4n = 10Kheresko took 6 of 10
S3Kheresko3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Kheresko4Melnik3n = 7Kheresko took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhereskoMelnikK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.9+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhereskoMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 433 vs 173 / 36850.4%47%218 / 433 vs 173 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.435.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikKheresko 2.00/Melnik 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kheresko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 11:25V. Kheresko4781181192O. Melnik48118117113
WSep 1 · 13:55V. Kheresko341112113O. Melnik2361070
LAug 19 · 06:25V. Kheresko561013141182O. Melnik561211166113
LAug 18 · 18:55V. Kheresko408151251O. Melnik49111314113
WAug 12 · 09:38V. Kheresko4211119113O. Melnik27661141
WAug 12 · 09:25V. Kheresko4011711113O. Melnik34611981
LAug 11 · 14:25V. Kheresko30114781O. Melnik4071111113
LJul 22 · 11:25V. Kheresko37187571O. Melnik49161111113
WJul 21 · 18:55V. Kheresko331111113O. Melnik189540
LJul 14 · 18:55V. Kheresko2451180O. Melnik351113113
V. Kheresko10
WSep 17 · 17:55M. Treschetka2.10981391V. Kheresko1.67111111113WSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161WSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 14 · 11:25V. Kheresko1.447111111143I. Fokin2.63118137122WSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 07:25H. Oliynyk1.44111188113V. Kheresko2.6323111192WSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 05:25M. Vivatenko1.91116116113V. Kheresko1.8081161152LSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113
O. Melnik10
WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123
Upcoming Matches
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O. Melnik
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