TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142017
Played Sep 17Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1177111171214711
Orest Melnik
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:24 and never touched — 72.3% is still 72.3%
Graded at full timeOrest Melnik to win
72.3%
72.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Orest Melnik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 98 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Orest Melnik at 72.3%
98 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 3–16 Orest Melnik Mykolay Treschetka has won 3 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:24What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-16 in 19
Melnik
Correct
gap of 13 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1153 vs Melnik 1222
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 40% vs Melnik 60%
Melnik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 50% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka +2 · Melnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 3.40 / Melnik 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Melnik)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13142017
Treschetka3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 83 of 206
Down 0–1, comes back23% 25 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 71
Melnik1.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite75% won 45 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka1wins
AwayMelnik9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnik100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S2Treschetka5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S3Treschetka2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Treschetka4Melnik2n = 6Treschetka took 4 of 6
S5Treschetka0Melnik5n = 5Melnik took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaMelnikT − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.840.7−6.9per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime474 / 941 vs 172 / 36850.4%46.7%474 / 941 vs 172 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikTreschetka 3.40/Melnik 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 07:25M. Treschetka47111113123O. Melnik418815101
LAug 13 · 14:25M. Treschetka4351191262O. Melnik511181110113
LMay 15 · 10:25M. Treschetka2679100O. Melnik341111123
LMay 14 · 12:55M. Treschetka143830O. Melnik331111113
LMay 1 · 09:25M. Treschetka3866111142O. Melnik47111159113
LApr 30 · 16:55M. Treschetka3951111662O. Melnik47119511113
LMar 20 · 10:25M. Treschetka238870O. Melnik331111113
LMar 19 · 13:55M. Treschetka4391141182O. Melnik40113114113
LFeb 27 · 05:55M. Treschetka3911118542O. Melnik47861111113
LFeb 26 · 19:55M. Treschetka2691070O. Melnik341112113
M. Treschetka10
WSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110WSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192WSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840LSep 14 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.171211113M. Treschetka4.5010420LSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.1073120V. Salivonchyk1.671111143LSep 14 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.5021111572M. Vivatenko1.50116811113WSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882WSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113
O. Melnik10
LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192WSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 06:55D. Belanchik2.2511811113O. Melnik1.57811691LSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113WSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113LSep 15 · 16:55O. Melnik1.73126100D. Kasian2.001411123
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