TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126188
Played Sep 14Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7113111214––––
Vasil Salivonchyk
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Vasil Salivonchyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Point 58 set 3, 12-14 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 56.6%
58 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 72–77 Vasil Salivonchyk Mykolay Treschetka has won 72 of their 149 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:33What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Salivonchyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
72-77 in 149
Salivonchyk
Correct
gap of 5 in 149, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1160 vs Salivonchyk 1213
Salivonchyk
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 60% vs Salivonchyk 20%
Treschetka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 40% vs Salivonchyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -1 · Salivonchyk -3
Salivonchyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Salivonchyk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Salivonchyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 2.10 / Salivonchyk 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126188
Treschetka2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 84 of 207
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back13% 9 of 70
Salivonchyk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 78 of 132
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it71% 58 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTreschetka4wins
AwaySalivonchyk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka28.6%2 of 7
AwaySalivonchyk33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka7Salivonchyk3n = 10Treschetka took 7 of 10
S2Treschetka3Salivonchyk7n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S3Treschetka4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S4Treschetka4Salivonchyk6n = 10Salivonchyk took 6 of 10
S5Treschetka2Salivonchyk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.441.4−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaSalivonchykBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 946 vs 335 / 62150.5%54%478 / 946 vs 335 / 621Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykTreschetka 2.10/Salivonchyk 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Salivonchyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka3911118452V. Salivonchyk48961111113
LSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka311110731V. Salivonchyk4061211113
WSep 6 · 16:55M. Treschetka3311111103V. Salivonchyk33771181
LAug 31 · 10:25M. Treschetka26112761V. Salivonchyk4291111113
WAug 30 · 14:25M. Treschetka518101111113V. Salivonchyk4211125772
LAug 24 · 05:55M. Treschetka4011711111V. Salivonchyk4361113133
LAug 23 · 17:55M. Treschetka521012117122V. Salivonchyk541210711143
LAug 17 · 04:25M. Treschetka28112781V. Salivonchyk4181111113
WAug 16 · 18:55M. Treschetka46761111113V. Salivonchyk4311115882
WAug 10 · 10:25M. Treschetka3811511113V. Salivonchyk28611651
M. Treschetka10
LSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.5021111572M. Vivatenko1.50116811113WSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka1.50591111113I. Fokin2.5011116882WSep 13 · 18:55V. Kheresko1.614270M. Treschetka2.201111113LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113WSep 13 · 15:25O. Sapuzhak2.50913611M. Treschetka1.50111111113WSep 13 · 13:25I. Fokin2.25791171M. Treschetka1.5711116113LSep 13 · 12:25D. Belanchik1.831111108113M. Treschetka1.8374121142LSep 7 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.201111113M. Treschetka4.337780LSep 7 · 09:25M. Treschetka2.2091111582V. Kheresko1.61113411113
V. Salivonchyk10
LSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.501111113V. Salivonchyk2.504780LSep 13 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak2.6361112123V. Salivonchyk1.4411810101WSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113LSep 13 · 15:55D. Belanchik1.73111111113V. Salivonchyk2.00613381WSep 13 · 13:55V. Kheresko1.73781111162V. Salivonchyk2.00111178183LSep 13 · 11:55I. Fokin2.381111103V. Salivonchyk1.539780WSep 7 · 10:55O. Maksymkiv1.80711481V. Salivonchyk1.9111911113LSep 7 · 09:55S. Kryvoshyi1.281112113V. Salivonchyk3.5061090WSep 7 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.101110731V. Salivonchyk1.6761211113
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