TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Kyrylo Tkachenko vs Danylo Kasian 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Kyrylo Tkachenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1198111156111012
Danylo Kasian
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyrylo Tkachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKyrylo Tkachenko above · Danylo Kasian below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 94 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Kyrylo Tkachenko at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Kyrylo Tkachenko 0–2 Danylo Kasian Kyrylo Tkachenko has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:01What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kasian
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tkachenko 1425 vs Kasian 1372
Tkachenko
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkachenko 100% vs Kasian 60%
Tkachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkachenko 80% vs Kasian 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkachenko +5 · Kasian +2
Tkachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasian) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkachenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkachenko 1.91 / Kasian 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kasian)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172974
Tkachenko1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog24% won 8 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back16% 3 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Kasian1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 20 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTkachenko0wins
AwayKasian2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderKasian leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricTkachenkoKasianT − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match41.044.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkachenkoKasianBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 180 vs 44 / 7356.7%60.3%102 / 180 vs 44 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasianTkachenko 1.91/Kasian 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kasian · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kasian won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 22 · 13:55K. Tkachenko46118116102D. Kasian48911511123
LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko36971191D. Kasian4011117113
K. Tkachenko10
WSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762WSep 15 · 16:25O. Maksymkiv3.4011911762K. Tkachenko1.30711811113WSep 15 · 15:25K. Tkachenko1.441711113S. Kryvoshyi2.6315970WSep 15 · 14:25O. Melnik4.509490K. Tkachenko1.171111113LSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113WSep 8 · 18:55K. Tkachenko1.221111113V. Kheresko4.006790WSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 14:55D. Belanchik2.00841111K. Tkachenko1.7311117113LSep 8 · 13:55K. Tkachenko1.40815371S. Kryvoshyi2.75111311113
D. Kasian10
WSep 22 · 11:55V. Hel1.9171161372D. Kasian1.801181111113WSep 21 · 11:35O. Maslovskyi2.5013880D. Kasian1.501511113LSep 21 · 10:05D. Kasian1.361161171S. Kryvoshyi3.0091113113WSep 21 · 08:05M. Vivatenko2.75671191D. Kasian1.4011119113LSep 21 · 06:05V. Salivonchyk2.101111133D. Kasian1.6799110LSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121WSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113WSep 16 · 08:25D. Belanchik2.758950D. Kasian1.401111113WSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 15 · 12:55K. Tkachenko1.61971191D. Kasian2.2011117113
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