TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 21Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111012114911––
Valerii Hel
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Hel to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Valerii Hel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Valerii Hel at 61.9%
75 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 0–4 Valerii Hel Vasil Salivonchyk has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:39What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Hel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Hel
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1217 vs Hel 1256
Hel
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 40% vs Hel 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 40% vs Hel 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk -2 · Hel -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Hel) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hel form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 2.75 / Hel 1.40
Signal prob.37% / 64%
Edge (Hel)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13166103
Salivonchyk2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 36 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Hel1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 54 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it87% 27 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 38 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk0wins
AwayHel4wins
2 of 4 to a deciderHel leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchykn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk1Hel3n = 4Hel took 3 of 4
S2Salivonchyk1Hel3n = 4Hel took 3 of 4
S3Salivonchyk2Hel2n = 4split evenly
S4Salivonchyk1Hel2n = 3Hel took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSalivonchykHelS − HBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match40.243.8−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykHelBasisWin rate · lifetime326 / 611 vs 128 / 23053.4%55.7%326 / 611 vs 128 / 230Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HelSalivonchyk 2.75/Hel 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.5%
Hel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 21 · 10:35V. Salivonchyk377101191V. Hel3811124113
LJul 29 · 06:55V. Salivonchyk2877140V. Hel381111163
LJul 28 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk4111611582V. Hel40211511113
LJun 14 · 18:25V. Salivonchyk551214712102V. Hel5914121110123
V. Salivonchyk10
LSep 21 · 09:05V. Salivonchyk2.50135115122M. Vivatenko1.501111511143LSep 21 · 07:35V. Salivonchyk1.57113971O. Maslovskyi2.2571111113WSep 21 · 06:05V. Salivonchyk2.101111133D. Kasian1.6799110LSep 21 · 04:35V. Salivonchyk3.7511791142S. Kryvoshyi1.25711116113WSep 20 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk1.53119711133O. Maslovskyi2.38811114112LSep 20 · 16:25V. Salivonchyk1.91741181O. Maksymkiv1.8011119113LSep 20 · 14:55V. Salivonchyk1.616360M. Treschetka2.201111113WSep 20 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk1.611111113I. Fokin2.207760WSep 20 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk2.20111179113V. Kheresko1.6197111182LSep 14 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.57771111113V. Salivonchyk2.2511116562
V. Hel10
LSep 21 · 09:35V. Hel1.28111111972O. Maslovskyi3.50139611113LSep 21 · 08:35V. Hel1.8381111622S. Kryvoshyi1.83114711113WSep 21 · 07:05V. Hel1.531111113M. Vivatenko2.388770WSep 17 · 18:25V. Hel1.8311119113O. Maksymkiv1.83891161LSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.