TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Vasil Salivonchyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611311611––––
Mykolay Treschetka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:06 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeVasil Salivonchyk to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVasil Salivonchyk above · Mykolay Treschetka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 48 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Vasil Salivonchyk at 58.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Vasil Salivonchyk 78–72 Mykolay Treschetka Mykolay Treschetka has won 72 of their 150 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:06What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Salivonchyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
78-72 in 150
Salivonchyk
Wrong
gap of 6 in 150, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Salivonchyk 1271 vs Treschetka 1128
Salivonchyk
Wrong
both rated, 142 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Salivonchyk 80% vs Treschetka 0%
Salivonchyk
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Salivonchyk 50% vs Treschetka 20%
Salivonchyk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Salivonchyk +2 · Treschetka -5
Treschetka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Salivonchyk) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Treschetka form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSalivonchyk 1.61 / Treschetka 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Salivonchyk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13162060
Salivonchyk1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 76 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it85% 35 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it71% 56 of 79
Treschetka2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 83 of 209
Down 0–1, comes back22% 25 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSalivonchyk7wins
AwayTreschetka3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSalivonchyk leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSalivonchyk50%2 of 4
AwayTreschetka16.7%1 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Salivonchyk4Treschetka6n = 10Treschetka took 6 of 10
S2Salivonchyk7Treschetka3n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S3Salivonchyk7Treschetka3n = 10Salivonchyk took 7 of 10
S4Salivonchyk6Treschetka2n = 8Salivonchyk took 6 of 8
S5Salivonchyk2Treschetka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match43.237.2+6.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSalivonchykTreschetkaBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 603 vs 467 / 93753.7%49.8%324 / 603 vs 467 / 937Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalivonchykSalivonchyk 1.61/Treschetka 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Salivonchyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 14 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk361111143M. Treschetka2273120
WSep 13 · 17:25V. Salivonchyk48961111113M. Treschetka3911118452
WSep 7 · 08:25V. Salivonchyk4061211113M. Treschetka311110731
WAug 31 · 10:25V. Salivonchyk4291111113M. Treschetka26112761
LAug 30 · 14:25V. Salivonchyk4211125772M. Treschetka518101111113
WAug 24 · 05:55V. Salivonchyk4361113133M. Treschetka4011711111
WAug 23 · 17:55V. Salivonchyk541210711143M. Treschetka521012117122
WAug 17 · 04:25V. Salivonchyk4181111113M. Treschetka28112781
LAug 16 · 18:55V. Salivonchyk4311115882M. Treschetka46761111113
V. Salivonchyk10
WSep 20 · 13:25V. Salivonchyk1.611111113I. Fokin2.207760WSep 20 · 11:55V. Salivonchyk2.20111179113V. Kheresko1.6197111182LSep 14 · 10:55M. Vivatenko1.57771111113V. Salivonchyk2.2511116562WSep 14 · 09:55I. Fokin1.8310128121V. Salivonchyk1.83121011143WSep 14 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.1073120V. Salivonchyk1.671111143LSep 14 · 06:25V. Kheresko1.7351111113V. Salivonchyk2.00113971LSep 14 · 04:25H. Oliynyk1.501111113V. Salivonchyk2.504780LSep 13 · 18:25O. Sapuzhak2.6361112123V. Salivonchyk1.4411810101WSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113LSep 13 · 15:55D. Belanchik1.73111111113V. Salivonchyk2.00613381
M. Treschetka10
LSep 20 · 13:55M. Treschetka2.5011128962V. Kheresko1.50710111193LSep 20 · 12:55O. Maksymkiv2.751113119113M. Treschetka1.4091561182LSep 18 · 10:25M. Treschetka5.00126101392H. Oliynyk1.1410111211113LSep 18 · 08:55M. Treschetka2.633130M. Vivatenko1.441111113LSep 18 · 07:25M. Treschetka2.201051181O. Maslovskyi1.6112119113WSep 18 · 05:55M. Treschetka1.5081111153I. Fokin2.501135131LSep 18 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.257570V. Kheresko1.571111113LSep 17 · 17:55M. Treschetka2.10981391V. Kheresko1.67111111113LSep 14 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.1073120V. Salivonchyk1.671111143LSep 13 · 17:25M. Treschetka2.1011118452V. Salivonchyk1.67961111113
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