TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13148410
Played Sep 18Finished
Mykolay Treschetka
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111131151513––
Illia Fokin
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeMykolay Treschetka to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykolay Treschetka above · Illia Fokin below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 77 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Mykolay Treschetka at 63.3%
77 points played in total.
H2H Mykolay Treschetka 4–0 Illia Fokin Illia Fokin has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 17h before this match
Treschetka beat Fokin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:49What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Treschetka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Treschetka
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Treschetka 1135 vs Fokin 1097
Treschetka
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Treschetka 40% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Treschetka 30% vs Fokin 60%
Fokin
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Treschetka -2 · Fokin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Treschetka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fokin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTreschetka 1.50 / Fokin 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Treschetka)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13148410
Treschetka1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 65 of 99
Up 2–0, closes it94% 33 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Fokin2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back27% 12 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeTreschetka4wins
AwayFokin0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderTreschetka leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTreschetka100%3 of 3
AwayFokinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Treschetka3Fokin1n = 4Treschetka took 3 of 4
S2Treschetka2Fokin2n = 4split evenly
S3Treschetka3Fokin1n = 4Treschetka took 3 of 4
S4Treschetka2Fokin1n = 3Treschetka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricTreschetkaFokinT − FBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match42.535.2+7.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTreschetkaFokinBasisWin rate · lifetime470 / 936 vs 145 / 27450.2%52.9%470 / 936 vs 145 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TreschetkaTreschetka 1.50/Fokin 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Treschetka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Treschetka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka51119137113I. Fokin47511111192
WSep 14 · 04:55M. Treschetka47591111113I. Fokin4411116882
WSep 13 · 13:25M. Treschetka3911116113I. Fokin34791171
WApr 28 · 05:55M. Treschetka331111113I. Fokin164840
M. Treschetka10
LSep 18 · 04:25M. Treschetka2.257570V. Kheresko1.571111113LSep 17 · 17:55M. Treschetka2.10981391V. Kheresko1.67111111113WSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113WSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192WSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840LSep 14 · 10:25H. Oliynyk1.171211113M. Treschetka4.5010420LSep 14 · 09:25M. Treschetka1.8371181192V. Kheresko1.83113113113LSep 14 · 08:25M. Treschetka2.1073120V. Salivonchyk1.671111143LSep 14 · 06:55M. Treschetka2.5021111572M. Vivatenko1.50116811113
I. Fokin10
WSep 18 · 04:55H. Oliynyk1.53111111962I. Fokin2.38541311113LSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961WSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361WSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 13:25M. Treschetka1.36119137113I. Fokin3.00511111192LSep 17 · 12:25V. Kheresko1.4411119113I. Fokin2.63951151WSep 16 · 18:55V. Ivanytskyi1.9110980I. Fokin1.801211103WSep 16 · 17:25I. Fokin1.731181111113M. Dunas2.0061191382WSep 16 · 15:25Y. Shcherbak4.0011511962I. Fokin1.22911611113LSep 16 · 13:25O. Maslovskyi2.201112113I. Fokin1.6161010
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