TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13142014
Played Sep 17Finished
Valerii Hel
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119911116––
Oleh Maksymkiv
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Maksymkiv to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValerii Hel above · Oleh Maksymkiv below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleh Maksymkiv at 55.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Hel 5–11 Oleh Maksymkiv Valerii Hel has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Maksymkiv
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-11 in 16
Maksymkiv
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hel 1221 vs Maksymkiv 1172
Hel
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hel 0% vs Maksymkiv 40%
Maksymkiv
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hel 20% vs Maksymkiv 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hel -5 · Maksymkiv -2
Hel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maksymkiv) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maksymkiv form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHel 1.83 / Maksymkiv 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Maksymkiv)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13142014
Hel1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Maksymkiv1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHel1wins
AwayMaksymkiv9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMaksymkiv leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHel0%0 of 3
AwayMaksymkiv85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hel3Maksymkiv7n = 10Maksymkiv took 7 of 10
S2Hel4Maksymkiv6n = 10Maksymkiv took 6 of 10
S3Hel5Maksymkiv5n = 10split evenly
S4Hel2Maksymkiv8n = 10Maksymkiv took 8 of 10
S5Hel1Maksymkiv3n = 4Maksymkiv took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHelMaksymkivH − MBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.842.3−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHelMaksymkivBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 226 vs 384 / 74155.3%51.8%125 / 226 vs 384 / 741Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaksymkivHel 1.83/Maksymkiv 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maksymkiv · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel368101171O. Maksymkiv3911125113
LSep 15 · 11:55V. Hel44111111832O. Maksymkiv46471311113
WJul 15 · 04:25V. Hel50712911113O. Maksymkiv44111011842
LJul 9 · 05:55V. Hel4191111101O. Maksymkiv4411138123
LJun 24 · 06:25V. Hel29114681O. Maksymkiv3411111113
LJun 23 · 13:55V. Hel3941111942O. Maksymkiv46114911113
LJun 17 · 05:25V. Hel386129111O. Maksymkiv45111011133
LJun 14 · 15:25V. Hel35961191O. Maksymkiv3711114113
LJun 5 · 05:25V. Hel27117451O. Maksymkiv4181111113
LMay 29 · 04:55V. Hel496111111102O. Maksymkiv47111374123
V. Hel10
LSep 17 · 16:25M. Treschetka3.501113133V. Hel1.28711110LSep 17 · 15:25V. Hel1.501071161I. Fokin2.5012114113LSep 17 · 14:25V. Kheresko2.7511116113V. Hel1.40691161LSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123LSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113WSep 16 · 09:25D. Belanchik1.67101112562V. Hel2.101271011113LSep 16 · 07:25S. Kryvoshyi1.911011117113V. Hel1.8012881192LSep 16 · 06:25V. Hel1.67141111762D. Kasian2.101221311113WSep 16 · 05:25O. Melnik2.507380V. Hel1.501111113LSep 15 · 18:25K. Tkachenko1.57116811113V. Hel2.2531111762
O. Maksymkiv10
LSep 17 · 17:25I. Fokin2.63111111113O. Maksymkiv1.44134361LSep 17 · 15:55V. Kheresko2.00991111113O. Maksymkiv1.7311116882WSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133LSep 17 · 11:55M. Treschetka1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.754840WSep 16 · 11:25V. Hel1.808101171O. Maksymkiv1.9111125113LSep 16 · 09:55O. Maksymkiv2.75145981D. Kasian1.40121111113LSep 16 · 07:55O. Melnik1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.753730LSep 16 · 05:55S. Kryvoshyi1.401111113O. Maksymkiv2.755420LSep 16 · 04:55D. Belanchik1.9181111113O. Maksymkiv1.80118671LSep 15 · 17:55O. Maksymkiv3.4011117572O. Melnik1.30891111113
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