TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Orest Melnik vs Denys Kozoriz 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 22Finished
Orest Melnik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101191311––––
Denys Kozoriz
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Kozoriz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOrest Melnik above · Denys Kozoriz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 66 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Denys Kozoriz at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Orest Melnik 29–15 Denys Kozoriz Denys Kozoriz has won 15 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:49What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-15 in 44
Melnik
Correct
gap of 14 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1268 vs Kozoriz 1391
Kozoriz
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Kozoriz 80%
Kozoriz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Kozoriz 80%
Kozoriz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Kozoriz +3
Kozoriz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kozoriz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kozoriz form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.80 / Kozoriz 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kozoriz)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13172914
Melnik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite73% won 47 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Kozoriz1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 30 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back13% 6 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayKozoriz3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik80%4 of 5
AwayKozoriz40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Kozoriz5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik8Kozoriz2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S3Melnik7Kozoriz3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Melnik6Kozoriz2n = 8Melnik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikKozorizM − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.931.3+7.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikKozorizBasisWin rate · lifetime169 / 364 vs 270 / 50546.4%53.5%169 / 364 vs 270 / 505Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.734.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KozorizMelnik 1.80/Kozoriz 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kozoriz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 22 · 15:25O. Melnik361211133D. Kozoriz30109110
LSep 2 · 06:25O. Melnik4111113792D. Kozoriz33001111113
WSep 1 · 14:55O. Melnik3961111113D. Kozoriz26118251
WAug 12 · 06:25O. Melnik4311155123D. Kozoriz4171311101
LAug 11 · 15:25O. Melnik27511471D. Kozoriz3911611113
LApr 7 · 13:55O. Melnik47107111182D. Kozoriz40121160113
WNov 26 · 07:25O. Melnik331111113D. Kozoriz208480
WNov 25 · 19:55O. Melnik44111111113D. Kozoriz26137241
WNov 5 · 14:55O. Melnik4111811113D. Kozoriz33811861
WOct 30 · 12:25O. Melnik3851111113D. Kozoriz25113561
O. Melnik10
LSep 22 · 16:25V. Hel1.571111113O. Melnik2.259640WSep 22 · 14:25S. Kryvoshyi1.3012911942O. Melnik3.401011611113LSep 22 · 12:55O. Melnik6.506690K. Tkachenko1.101111113WSep 17 · 18:55O. Melnik1.3011711113I. Fokin3.40911961LSep 17 · 16:55V. Kheresko2.00101411113O. Melnik1.731212421WSep 17 · 14:55M. Treschetka3.40117111272O. Melnik1.30711714113LSep 17 · 13:55O. Melnik1.30159110O. Maksymkiv3.401711133WSep 17 · 12:55V. Hel1.441195101O. Melnik2.6381111123WSep 16 · 10:55O. Melnik2.5081211143D. Kasian1.5011104121LSep 16 · 08:55S. Kryvoshyi1.30911119113O. Melnik3.4011251192
D. Kozoriz10
WSep 22 · 13:25V. Hel2.388111161D. Kozoriz1.5311138113WSep 22 · 12:25S. Kryvoshyi2.3811119592D. Kozoriz1.53771111113WSep 9 · 11:25O. Maksymkiv3.75521171D. Kozoriz1.2511117113LSep 9 · 09:55D. Kozoriz1.8091120A. Didyk1.911113113WSep 9 · 07:55V. Dobrovolskyi1.36411851D. Kozoriz3.0011611113WSep 9 · 05:55H. Oliynyk4.336780D. Kozoriz1.201111113WSep 9 · 04:55D. Belanchik3.253540D. Kozoriz1.331111113WSep 8 · 17:55D. Belanchik3.008270D. Kozoriz1.361111113LSep 8 · 16:55D. Kozoriz1.679490K. Tkachenko2.101111113WSep 8 · 15:55D. Kozoriz1.611112113S. Kryvoshyi2.2061030
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