TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
David Hons
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111151178111210
Jirasek Martin
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:13 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 89 set 5, 12-10 — our read held David Hons at 62.7%
89 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 4–4 Jirasek Martin Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hons
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1654 vs Martin 1462
Hons
Correct
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 100% vs Martin 20%
Hons
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 90% vs Martin 30%
Hons
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons +7 · Martin -2
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Hons) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.73 / Martin 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Hons)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13163369
Hons1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 7
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 60 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Martin2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 18 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayMartin4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons66.7%4 of 6
AwayMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons6Martin2n = 8Hons took 6 of 8
S2Hons2Martin6n = 8Martin took 6 of 8
S3Hons3Martin5n = 8Martin took 5 of 8
S4Hons3Martin4n = 7Martin took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away338%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricHonsMartinH − MBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match36.638.6−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 510 vs 42 / 8551.2%49.4%261 / 510 vs 42 / 85Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.73/Martin 2.00
Miss
What we said
56.5%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 19 · 20:05D. Hons4511511183J. Martin429116161
WSep 11 · 21:35D. Hons481111105113J. Martin4559121182
LSep 11 · 20:35D. Hons28118361J. Martin3961111113
WSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons3813311113J. Martin321111461
LAug 8 · 10:35D. Hons29921171J. Martin4111118113
LAug 8 · 06:35D. Hons35116991J. Martin4291111113
LAug 7 · 21:09D. Hons2581070J. Martin341112113
WAug 7 · 20:05D. Hons45131110113J. Martin341171241
D. Hons10
LSep 20 · 15:05D. Hons2.2510111181R. Fnukal1.5712139113WSep 19 · 21:40D. Hons1.80119511143T. Motacek1.91711118122WSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:35T. Motacek2.0012611942D. Hons1.731011511113WSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113WSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681LSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123
J. Martin10
LSep 20 · 15:35J. Martin2.7562100J. Lovl1.401111123LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113LSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113
Upcoming Matches
D. Hons
Nothing scheduled
J. Martin
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