TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6112111012––––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 53 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jan Lovl at 69.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 1–3 Jan Lovl Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Lovl
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1472 vs Lovl 1520
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 20% vs Lovl 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 20% vs Lovl 40%
Lovl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -3 · Lovl -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Lovl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 2.75 / Lovl 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Lovl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13164440
Martin2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 18 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back22% 4 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Lovl1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeMartin1wins
AwayLovl3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLovl leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartin33.3%1 of 3
AwayLovln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin3Lovl1n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S2Martin1Lovl3n = 4Lovl took 3 of 4
S3Martin2Lovl2n = 4split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricMartinLovlM − LBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match32.234.0−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 86 vs 178 / 34648.8%51.5%42 / 86 vs 178 / 346Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlMartin 2.75/Lovl 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 6 · 08:35J. Martin199550J. Lovl331111113
LSep 5 · 12:35J. Martin30115681J. Lovl4291111113
WAug 3 · 16:05J. Martin351311113J. Lovl1911440
LAug 1 · 13:40J. Martin4511711792J. Lovl42511411113
J. Martin10
LSep 20 · 14:05D. Hons1.73311118123J. Martin2.00115711102LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin3.2581070M. Chmelicek1.331112113LSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113
J. Lovl10
WSep 20 · 16:05D. Hons2.008940J. Lovl1.731111113LSep 20 · 14:35J. Lovl2.501111612132R. Fnukal1.50881114153LSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251LSep 19 · 07:35D. Hons2.2091111113J. Lovl1.61116681WSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080LSep 13 · 17:34J. Lovl2.63811781R. Pokorny1.4411211113WSep 13 · 16:05J. Lovl2.7511101210113R. Pokorny1.40812101272WSep 13 · 15:05J. Lovl1.441111153K. Lahodny2.6378130WSep 13 · 14:05J. Lovl1.5011118123J. Vidourek2.405611101
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