TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13161592
Played Sep 19Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012711––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 59 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 2–3 Martin Chmelicek Jirasek Martin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Martin beat Chmelicek 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1470 vs Chmelicek 1360
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 20% vs Chmelicek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 40% vs Chmelicek 20%
Martin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -1 · Chmelicek -3
Chmelicek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Chmelicek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 3.25 / Chmelicek 1.33
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Chmelicek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13161592
Martin3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Chmelicek1.33
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 62 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it68% 50 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMartin2wins
AwayChmelicek3wins
Chmelicek leads 3–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChmelicek100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S2Martin4Chmelicek1n = 5Martin took 4 of 5
S3Martin2Chmelicek3n = 5Chmelicek took 3 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMartinChmelicekM − CBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.433.6−2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 85 vs 240 / 51649.4%46.5%42 / 85 vs 240 / 516Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekMartin 3.25/Chmelicek 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 19 · 21:10J. Martin2581070M. Chmelicek341112113
WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek235990
LAug 27 · 21:03J. Martin374111571M. Chmelicek4711817113
LAug 27 · 19:05J. Martin291116111M. Chmelicek4211711133
WAug 7 · 18:05J. Martin331111113M. Chmelicek229670
J. Martin10
LSep 19 · 20:05J. Martin1.839116161D. Hons1.8311511183WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 19 · 20:35M. Chmelicek2.7511124542T. Motacek1.405101111113LSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 19 · 18:35D. Hons1.40111188113M. Chmelicek2.7594111182WSep 18 · 21:18M. Chmelicek1.44111111113M. Dvorak2.63135391LSep 18 · 20:05J. Kabelka1.801111113M. Chmelicek1.912990WSep 18 · 19:35M. Dvorak2.389980M. Chmelicek1.531111113LSep 18 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.73714111162M. Cyrus2.00111685113LSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113LSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040
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