TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114159
Played Sep 11Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118113116––
David Hons
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 4–2 David Hons David Hons has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:23What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Martin
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1554 vs Hons 1519
Martin
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 80% vs Hons 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 70% vs Hons 50%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin +4 · Hons +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Martin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 1.83 / Hons 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Martin)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13114159
Martin1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Hons1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMartin4wins
AwayHons2wins
Martin leads 4–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHons50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin2Hons4n = 6Hons took 4 of 6
S2Martin5Hons1n = 6Martin took 5 of 6
S3Martin4Hons2n = 6Martin took 4 of 6
S4Martin3Hons2n = 5Martin took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricMartinHonsM − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.033.3+3.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime40 / 76 vs 237 / 48152.6%49.3%40 / 76 vs 237 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinMartin 1.83/Hons 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin—61111113D. Hons—118361
LSep 9 · 20:35J. Martin—1111461D. Hons—13311113
WAug 8 · 10:35J. Martin—11118113D. Hons—921171
WAug 8 · 06:35J. Martin—91111113D. Hons—116991
WAug 7 · 21:09J. Martin—1112113D. Hons—81070
LAug 7 · 20:05J. Martin—1171241D. Hons—131110113
J. Martin10
WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113WSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110WSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:35O. Pros2.634111111113J. Martin1.4411137792LSep 11 · 14:35J. Martin2.10101111862L. Vosyka1.67126611113WSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181LSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461WSep 9 · 19:35J. Martin2.001111113J. Vidourek1.739680WSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113
D. Hons10
WSep 11 · 19:35D. Hons2.7511114113R. Vosyka1.40781191WSep 11 · 18:05S. Kafka1.6157100D. Hons2.201111123WSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113WSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461LSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161
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