Jirasek Martin vs Milan Flesar 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13106331

Played Sep 9Finished

Jirasek Martin

Home

1.40

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Lost last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

115115911118––

Milan Flesar

Away

2.75

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%

Graded at full time

Jirasek Martin to win

63.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

not sent

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Milan Flesar below

Set 1 · 11-5

Set 2 · 11-5

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Point 71 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 63.0%

71 points played in total.

H2H Jirasek Martin 4–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 5 meetings.

Last 5 · 4–1Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 4h before this match

Martin beat Flesar 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 21:03

What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.40 (66%)

Martin

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-1 in 5

Martin

Correct

gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Martin 1488 vs Flesar 1469

Martin

Correct

both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Martin 60% vs Flesar 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Martin 60% vs Flesar 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Martin -1 · Flesar +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Flesar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsMartin 1.40 / Flesar 2.75

Signal prob.66% / 34%

Edge (Martin)-0.6pp

TT Cup · #13106331

Martin1.40

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite52% won 15 of 29

Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9

Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15

Flesar2.75

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog44% won 45 of 103

Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 62

Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 5 meetings

HomeMartin4wins

AwayFlesar1wins

Martin leads 4–1.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeMartin80%4 of 5

AwayFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Martin5Flesar0n = 5Martin took 5 of 5

S2Martin3Flesar2n = 5Martin took 3 of 5

S3Martin4Flesar1n = 5Martin took 4 of 5

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home360%

3–1Four sets, home120%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away120%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 5 meetings

MetricMartinFlesarM − FBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match34.426.2+8.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricMartinFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime34 / 68 vs 210 / 39650%53%34 / 68 vs 210 / 396Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Martin

Martin 1.40/Flesar 2.75

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

65.7%

Martin · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Martin won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record5

WSep 9 · 18:05J. Martin—1111113M. Flesar—6230

WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin—1111163M. Flesar—88140

WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin—1111113M. Flesar—7640

WAug 3 · 17:50J. Martin—11311113M. Flesar—511691

LAug 3 · 14:05J. Martin—119391M. Flesar—91111113

J. Martin10

LSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461 WSep 9 · 19:35J. Martin2.001111113J. Vidourek1.739680 WSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113 LSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070 WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262 WSep 7 · 19:05J. Martin1.731112113J. Hajek2.0041070 LSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113 WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140 LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550 WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640

M. Flesar10

WSep 9 · 20:05M. Flesar2.0011911113J. Vidourek1.73811881 WSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641 LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113 LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113 WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113 LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691 WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880 LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140 WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143 LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640

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