TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13098097
Played Sep 8Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811114711611––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:02 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 66.5%
69 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 11–2 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:02What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-2 in 13
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1487 vs Flesar 1477
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 20% vs Flesar 40%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 40% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -4 · Flesar -1
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.44 / Flesar 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Neterda)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13098097
Neterda1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 56 of 86
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it74% 39 of 53
Flesar2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda8wins
AwayFlesar2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda80%4 of 5
AwayFlesar20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda5Flesar5n = 10split evenly
S2Neterda8Flesar2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S3Neterda8Flesar2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S4Neterda5Flesar1n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaFlesarN − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.730.6+7.1per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 394 vs 207 / 39150.5%52.9%199 / 394 vs 207 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.44/Flesar 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 17:34R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—7650
LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda—38111192M. Flesar—111199113
WJul 1 · 12:05R. Neterda—611911113M. Flesar—11511682
WJun 29 · 15:05R. Neterda—71111113M. Flesar—114891
WJun 11 · 13:15R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—4480
WJun 11 · 11:35R. Neterda—51111123M. Flesar—1166101
WMay 31 · 17:45R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—6580
WMay 31 · 16:05R. Neterda—91111113M. Flesar—117891
LApr 28 · 11:35R. Neterda—118781M. Flesar—51111113
WApr 8 · 13:35R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—9770
R. Neterda10
LSep 8 · 19:05R. Neterda1.618119101J. Vidourek2.2011611123LSep 8 · 18:05R. Neterda1.73811811L. Vosyka2.0011911113LSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113LSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482WSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113
M. Flesar10
LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113
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