TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13102720
Played Sep 9Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611211311––––
Jirasek Martin
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched — 57.8% is still 57.8%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
57.8%
57.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 44 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 57.8%
44 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 1–3 Jirasek Martin Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:57What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Martin
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1455 vs Martin 1485
Martin
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Martin 60%
Martin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 30% vs Martin 60%
Martin
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Martin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.25 / Martin 1.57
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Martin)-2.2pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13102720
Flesar2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 45 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Martin1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 15 of 29
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeFlesar1wins
AwayMartin3wins
Martin leads 3–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar0Martin4n = 4Martin took 4 of 4
S2Flesar2Martin2n = 4split evenly
S3Flesar1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricFlesarMartinF − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set04−4of 4Avg pointsper match30.034.8−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 393 vs 32 / 6552.9%49.2%208 / 393 vs 32 / 65Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinFlesar 2.25/Martin 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 6 · 09:05M. Flesar—88140J. Martin—1111163
LSep 6 · 07:35M. Flesar—7640J. Martin—1111113
LAug 3 · 17:50M. Flesar—511691J. Martin—11311113
WAug 3 · 14:05M. Flesar—91111113J. Martin—119391
M. Flesar10
LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110
J. Martin10
LSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262WSep 7 · 19:05J. Martin1.731112113J. Hajek2.0041070LSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113
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