TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13094952
Played Sep 7Finished
Matyas Rojka
Home
2.01
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210117––––
Jirasek Martin
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Rojka above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Rojka 1–0 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Rojka beat Martin 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rojka 1349 vs Martin 1505
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 156 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rojka 60% vs Martin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rojka 50% vs Martin 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rojka +3 · Martin +2
Rojka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRojka 2.01 / Martin 1.66
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Martin)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13094952
Rojka2.01
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back28% 10 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Martin1.66
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 13 of 25
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it69% 9 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeRojka1wins
AwayMartin0wins
Rojka leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricRojkaMartinR − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.019.0+14.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRojkaMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime94 / 197 vs 32 / 6447.7%50%94 / 197 vs 32 / 64Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinRojka 2.01/Martin 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.6%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 7 · 18:05M. Rojka—1111113J. Martin—8470
M. Rojka10
WSep 7 · 20:35J. Hajek1.57311111452M. Rojka2.251113612113WSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280WSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113
J. Martin10
WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262WSep 7 · 19:05J. Martin1.731112113J. Hajek2.0041070LSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113
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