TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091512
Played Sep 7Finished
Matyas Rojka
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161412118––––
Tomas Krcil
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:07 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatyas Rojka above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 62 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Rojka 6–11 Tomas Krcil Matyas Rojka has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:07What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Krcil
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rojka 1315 vs Krcil 1489
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rojka 20% vs Krcil 80%
Krcil
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rojka 30% vs Krcil 60%
Krcil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rojka +1 · Krcil -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRojka 2.20 / Krcil 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Krcil)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13091512
Rojka2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog34% won 17 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back28% 10 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 3 of 18
Krcil1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite54% won 45 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it70% 32 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRojka4wins
AwayKrcil6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRojka33.3%1 of 3
AwayKrcil57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rojka3Krcil7n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Rojka7Krcil3n = 10Rojka took 7 of 10
S3Rojka5Krcil5n = 10split evenly
S4Rojka4Krcil5n = 9Krcil took 5 of 9
S5Rojka1Krcil3n = 4Krcil took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRojkaKrcilR − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.840.8−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRojkaKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 195 vs 138 / 26447.2%52.3%92 / 195 vs 138 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilRojka 2.20/Krcil 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 21:50M. Rojka—91111952T. Krcil—116911113
LSep 2 · 19:05M. Rojka—511581T. Krcil—11311113
LJul 8 · 19:35M. Rojka—111410562T. Krcil—6121211113
LJun 17 · 21:05M. Rojka—7580T. Krcil—1111113
LJun 17 · 19:35M. Rojka—116661T. Krcil—81111113
WJun 15 · 18:35M. Rojka—13114133T. Krcil—11611111
WJun 11 · 20:35M. Rojka—3101111203T. Krcil—111256182
LJun 2 · 20:05M. Rojka—91111332T. Krcil—119711113
WMay 28 · 21:15M. Rojka—41111113T. Krcil—117261
WMay 28 · 20:05M. Rojka—31411113T. Krcil—1112451
M. Rojka10
WSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952
T. Krcil10
LSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262LSep 7 · 18:35T. Krcil1.50191181J. Hajek2.5011117113WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581WSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133LSep 1 · 19:05J. Vidourek1.5781111113T. Krcil2.25119991LSep 1 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.73111179113T. Krcil2.0097111192
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