TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103549
Played Sep 9Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210116114––
David Hons
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:51 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 74 set 4, 11-4 — our read held David Hons at 54.8%
74 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 2–4 David Hons Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 10:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Hons
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1442 vs Hons 1491
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 40% vs Hons 20%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 30% vs Hons 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Hons -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.10 / Hons 1.67
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Hons)-1.0pp
TT Cup · #13103549
Flesar2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 45 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back27% 17 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Hons1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 50 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 35 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayHons4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderHons leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar66.7%2 of 3
AwayHons100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar3Hons3n = 6split evenly
S2Flesar0Hons6n = 6Hons took 6 of 6
S3Flesar4Hons2n = 6Flesar took 4 of 6
S4Flesar3Hons1n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricFlesarHonsF − HBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match37.739.8−2.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 394 vs 233 / 47552.8%49.1%208 / 394 vs 233 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsFlesar 2.10/Hons 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.8%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 29 · 20:35M. Flesar—16911113D. Hons—1411961
LJul 18 · 13:35M. Flesar—86110D. Hons—1111133
WJul 18 · 12:05M. Flesar—11811133D. Hons—5117111
LJun 21 · 19:35M. Flesar—711121182D. Hons—1113103113
LJun 6 · 14:35M. Flesar—11311682D. Hons—811711113
LMar 7 · 19:05M. Flesar—81050D. Hons—1112113
M. Flesar10
LSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 8 · 21:33M. Flesar2.0051111942L. Vosyka1.73119411113WSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:35L. Vosyka1.8331111113M. Flesar1.83118691WSep 8 · 18:35M. Flesar2.001111113J. Vidourek1.737880LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113
D. Hons10
LSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870LSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
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D. Hons
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