TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13097990
Played Sep 8Finished
David Hons
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114116811811411
Tomas Krcil
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:34 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeDavid Hons to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Tomas Krcil below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 85 set 5, 4-11 — our read held David Hons at 54.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 6–2 Tomas Krcil Tomas Krcil has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:34What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hons
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Hons
Wrong
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1503 vs Krcil 1458
Hons
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 40% vs Krcil 20%
Hons
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 30% vs Krcil 50%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -2 · Krcil -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Hons)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 1.73 / Krcil 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Hons)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13097990
Hons1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 50 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 35 of 46
Krcil2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog55% won 21 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back38% 8 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeHons6wins
AwayKrcil2wins
1 of 8 to a deciderHons leads 6–2, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons85.7%6 of 7
AwayKrciln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons7Krcil1n = 8Hons took 7 of 8
S2Hons6Krcil2n = 8Hons took 6 of 8
S3Hons5Krcil3n = 8Hons took 5 of 8
S4Hons3Krcil1n = 4Hons took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricHonsKrcilH − KBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match38.232.6+5.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsKrcilBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 472 vs 139 / 26949.2%51.7%232 / 472 vs 139 / 269Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HonsHons 1.73/Krcil 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Hons · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 24 · 21:03D. Hons—1111113T. Krcil—8990
LAug 24 · 18:35D. Hons—1161021T. Krcil—51112113
WJun 17 · 18:05D. Hons—1111113T. Krcil—9180
WJun 16 · 21:35D. Hons—11127113T. Krcil—6101181
WJun 16 · 20:05D. Hons—16126113T. Krcil—14101171
WFeb 23 · 17:35D. Hons—1112153T. Krcil—510130
LFeb 2 · 22:50D. Hons—12101111102T. Krcil—141276123
WFeb 2 · 20:35D. Hons—1111113T. Krcil—8680
D. Hons10
WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870LSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113
T. Krcil10
LSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 15:35T. Krcil2.63611521R. Fitl1.4411611113LSep 8 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50111188113T. Krcil2.5089111182WSep 7 · 21:15J. Hajek2.1091080T. Krcil1.671112113LSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262LSep 7 · 19:35M. Rojka2.201114113T. Krcil1.6161280LSep 7 · 18:35T. Krcil1.50191181J. Hajek2.5011117113WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
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