TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13091326
Played Sep 7Finished
David Hons
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111151210117––
Ladislav Vosyka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:37 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Vosyka to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDavid Hons above · Ladislav Vosyka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 75 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ladislav Vosyka at 54.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H David Hons 25–21 Ladislav Vosyka Ladislav Vosyka has won 21 of their 46 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:37What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vosyka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-21 in 46
Hons
Correct
gap of 4 in 46, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hons 1477 vs Vosyka 1469
Hons
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hons 0% vs Vosyka 40%
Vosyka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hons 30% vs Vosyka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hons -5 · Vosyka -2
Hons
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vosyka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vosyka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHons 2.00 / Vosyka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vosyka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13091326
Hons2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 60 of 145
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 42
Vosyka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 81 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHons4wins
AwayVosyka6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderVosyka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHons50%3 of 6
AwayVosyka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hons6Vosyka4n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Hons4Vosyka6n = 10Vosyka took 6 of 10
S3Hons4Vosyka6n = 10Vosyka took 6 of 10
S4Hons2Vosyka3n = 5Vosyka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricHonsVosykaH − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match31.333.7−2.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHonsVosykaBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 468 vs 214 / 42049.2%51%230 / 468 vs 214 / 420Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VosykaHons 2.00/Vosyka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vosyka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 15:35D. Hons—115116112L. Vosyka—611711133
LAug 24 · 19:35D. Hons—6570L. Vosyka—1111113
WJul 22 · 16:05D. Hons—1112113L. Vosyka—71040
LJul 19 · 19:05D. Hons—119341L. Vosyka—91111113
LJul 7 · 20:35D. Hons—116581L. Vosyka—71111113
LJul 3 · 21:35D. Hons—9560L. Vosyka—1111113
LJul 3 · 20:05D. Hons—8870L. Vosyka—1111113
WJul 1 · 21:10D. Hons—61111113L. Vosyka—119671
WJul 1 · 18:05D. Hons—1111113L. Vosyka—3890
WJun 21 · 21:35D. Hons—14119113L. Vosyka—1261151
D. Hons10
WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870LSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113LSep 3 · 20:35J. Vidourek1.6781111113D. Hons2.10115851LSep 3 · 19:35D. Hons2.50612581R. Vosyka1.50111011113WSep 3 · 18:05R. Fitl1.676650D. Hons2.101111113WAug 29 · 21:10D. Hons1.831114138113R. Pokorny1.83712151182LAug 29 · 20:35D. Hons1.531411961M. Flesar2.3816911113WAug 29 · 19:05R. Pokorny1.7351161182D. Hons2.00117115113
L. Vosyka10
LSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280LSep 7 · 15:35L. Vosyka2.009650R. Fitl1.731111113LSep 7 · 14:05R. Fnukal1.831111119113L. Vosyka1.8351381162WSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840LSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531WSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:05L. Vosyka1.6711611942M. Flesar2.10711611113LSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113
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