David Hons vs Jirasek Martin 3-1

TT Lossbeater/TT Cup

TT CupMatch #13103820

Played Sep 9Finished

David Hons

Home

2.00

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1311311114116––

Jirasek Martin

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Jirasek Martin to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingDavid Hons above · Jirasek Martin below

Set 1 · 13-11

Set 2 · 3-11

Set 3 · 11-4

Set 4 · 11-6

Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%

70 points played in total.

H2H David Hons 1–3 Jirasek Martin David Hons has won 1 of their 4 meetings.

Last 4 · 1–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:56

What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Martin

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

1-3 in 4

Martin

Wrong

gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Hons 1478 vs Martin 1513

Martin

Wrong

both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Hons 20% vs Martin 80%

Martin

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Hons 30% vs Martin 60%

Martin

Wrong

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Hons -2 · Martin +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Martin) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Martin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsHons 2.00 / Martin 1.73

Signal prob.46% / 55%

Edge (Martin)+0.8pp

TT Cup · #13103820

Hons2.00

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog42% won 63 of 151

Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46

Martin1.73

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite52% won 15 of 29

Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9

Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 4 meetings

HomeHons1wins

AwayMartin3wins

Martin leads 3–1.

First set to match win · in this matchup

Not enough first sets

Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.

Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Hons2Martin2n = 4split evenly

S2Hons1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4

S3Hons1Martin3n = 4Martin took 3 of 4

S4Hons1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3

How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home125%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away250%

0–3Straight, away125%

These 4 meetings

MetricHonsMartinH − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match33.537.8−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricHonsMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 476 vs 34 / 6749%50.8%233 / 476 vs 34 / 67Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.835.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Martin

Hons 2.00/Martin 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.5%

Martin · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Hons won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record4

LAug 8 · 10:35D. Hons—921171J. Martin—11118113

LAug 8 · 06:35D. Hons—116991J. Martin—91111113

LAug 7 · 21:09D. Hons—81070J. Martin—1112113

WAug 7 · 20:05D. Hons—131110113J. Martin—1171241

D. Hons10

LSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641 WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113 LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113 LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670 LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161 WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280 WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071 LSep 7 · 15:05R. Fnukal1.671111113D. Hons2.107870 LSep 7 · 14:35R. Fitl1.50111114113D. Hons2.50461661 LSep 3 · 21:08D. Hons2.259440R. Fitl1.571111113

J. Martin10

WSep 9 · 19:35J. Martin2.001111113J. Vidourek1.739680 WSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113 LSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070 WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262 WSep 7 · 19:05J. Martin1.731112113J. Hajek2.0041070 LSep 7 · 18:05J. Martin1.288470M. Rojka3.501111113 WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140 LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550 WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640 LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670

Upcoming Matches

D. Hons

Nothing scheduled

J. Martin

Sep 9 · 21:35J. Martin—M. Flesar——

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