TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13114113
Played Sep 11Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117511119911711
Jirasek Martin
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:26 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 92 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 57.7%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 0–3 Jirasek Martin Jan Manhal Jr has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:26What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Martin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Martin
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1473 vs Martin 1488
Martin
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Martin 40%
Jr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Martin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Martin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Martin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.20 / Martin 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Martin)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13114113
Jr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 6 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back22% 2 of 9
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Martin1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 17 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJr0wins
AwayMartin3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMartin leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3
S2Jr1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3
S3Jr1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricJrMartinJ − MBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.344.7−6.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime16 / 36 vs 35 / 7144.4%49.3%16 / 36 vs 35 / 71Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MartinJr 2.20/Martin 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Martin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 24 · 16:35J. Jr—6916131J. Martin—111114153
LAug 19 · 17:50J. Jr—9890J. Martin—1111113
LAug 19 · 15:35J. Jr—111110582J. Martin—881211113
J. Jr10
LSep 11 · 15:05J. Jr2.1011581462L. Vosyka1.678111112113WSep 11 · 14:05J. Jr1.3691111113O. Pros3.00116551WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113WSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113LAug 24 · 16:35J. Martin1.57111114153J. Jr2.256916131WAug 24 · 15:35J. Jr1.9111212113R. Fitl1.808111061LAug 24 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50911511113J. Jr2.5011711682
J. Martin10
LSep 11 · 15:35O. Pros2.634111111113J. Martin1.4411137792LSep 11 · 14:35J. Martin2.10101111862L. Vosyka1.67126611113WSep 9 · 21:35J. Martin1.4011119113M. Flesar2.75551181LSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461WSep 9 · 19:35J. Martin2.001111113J. Vidourek1.739680WSep 9 · 18:05M. Flesar2.256230J. Martin1.571111113LSep 7 · 21:45M. Rojka2.011112113J. Martin1.6641070WSep 7 · 20:05J. Martin1.671141110113T. Krcil2.1001171262WSep 7 · 19:05J. Martin1.731112113J. Hajek2.0041070WAug 24 · 16:35J. Martin1.57111114153J. Jr2.256916131
Upcoming Matches
J. Jr
Nothing scheduled
J. Martin
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