TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13113524
Played Sep 11Finished
Stanislav Kafka
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5117111012––––
David Hons
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStanislav Kafka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStanislav Kafka above · David Hons below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 56 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Stanislav Kafka at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Kafka 6–6 David Hons Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kafka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kafka 1637 vs Hons 1506
Kafka
Wrong
both rated, 131 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kafka 60% vs Hons 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kafka 60% vs Hons 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kafka +3 · Hons +2
Kafka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kafka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hons form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKafka 1.61 / Hons 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kafka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13113524
Kafka1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 13 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Hons2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 65 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKafka5wins
AwayHons5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKafka75%3 of 4
AwayHons66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kafka4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S2Kafka4Hons6n = 10Hons took 6 of 10
S3Kafka5Hons5n = 10split evenly
S4Kafka5Hons3n = 8Kafka took 5 of 8
S5Kafka2Hons2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKafkaHonsK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.141.1−1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKafkaHonsBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 92 vs 235 / 47863%49.2%58 / 92 vs 235 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KafkaKafka 1.61/Hons 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Kafka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Hons won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 10 · 19:05S. Kafka—11144113D. Hons—9121181
LApr 7 · 17:35S. Kafka—91114872D. Hons—1191211113
LApr 7 · 15:05S. Kafka—78111472D. Hons—1111812113
LMar 19 · 18:40S. Kafka—8380D. Hons—1111113
WMar 19 · 16:35S. Kafka—11811113D. Hons—911541
WMar 11 · 21:35S. Kafka—91111163D. Hons—1185141
LJan 13 · 17:35S. Kafka—116981D. Hons—61111113
LJan 8 · 22:05S. Kafka—12790D. Hons—1411113
WJan 8 · 19:05S. Kafka—812812113D. Hons—1110111072
WDec 30 · 20:05S. Kafka—114118113D. Hons—71151162
S. Kafka10
WSep 10 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.737970S. Kafka2.001111113WSep 10 · 20:05S. Kafka1.531111153M. Flesar2.3895130WSep 10 · 19:05S. Kafka1.73741111113T. Krcil2.0011112782LSep 10 · 18:05S. Kafka1.83481191L. Vosyka1.8311119113LMay 4 · 21:35S. Kafka1.646990L. Vosyka2.041111113WMay 4 · 20:05S. Kafka1.661211173L. Vosyka2.00107150WMay 4 · 19:05S. Kafka1.611112113S. Vyskocil2.0891090WMay 4 · 18:05S. Kafka1.5011115113M. Jirasek2.30841161LApr 17 · 17:05S. Kafka—751171R. Neterda—11116113LApr 17 · 16:05S. Kafka—9550J. Hertl—1111113
D. Hons10
WSep 9 · 21:05J. Vidourek1.539970D. Hons2.381111113WSep 9 · 20:35D. Hons2.0013311113J. Martin1.731111461LSep 9 · 19:05M. Flesar2.1091211113D. Hons1.671110641LSep 9 · 18:35J. Vidourek1.571213117113D. Hons2.25141151172WSep 8 · 17:10T. Krcil1.8351191142D. Hons1.83119118113LSep 8 · 16:35D. Hons1.7311118842T. Krcil2.00461111113LSep 8 · 15:05R. Vosyka1.501111113D. Hons2.507670LSep 8 · 14:35R. Fitl1.4412119113D. Hons2.631091161WSep 7 · 17:09D. Hons2.201111113L. Vosyka1.618280WSep 7 · 16:35D. Hons2.0081112113L. Vosyka1.731151071
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