TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158213
Played Sep 19Finished
Jirasek Martin
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811011––––
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:16 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJirasek Martin above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 0-11
Point 45 set 3, 0-11 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 59.9%
45 points played in total.
H2H Jirasek Martin 1–2 Tomas Motacek Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:16What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Motacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martin 1494 vs Motacek 1461
Martin
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martin 20% vs Motacek 60%
Motacek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martin 60% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martin -3 · Motacek -1
Martin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartin 2.00 / Motacek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Motacek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13158213
Martin2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 7 days ago (Sep 12) · back after a break
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 18 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Motacek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite56% won 10 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMartin1wins
AwayMotacek2wins
Motacek leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartin33.3%1 of 3
AwayMotacekn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martin3Motacek0n = 3Martin took 3 of 3
S2Martin0Motacek3n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S3Martin1Motacek2n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
S4Martin1Motacek2n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricMartinMotacekMartin − MotacekBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match37.040.3−3.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 81 vs 22 / 4050.6%55%41 / 81 vs 22 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekMartin 2.00/Motacek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Motacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 12 · 17:34J. Martin30119371T. Motacek4291111113
LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin38128991T. Motacek43101111113
WAug 27 · 18:05J. Martin4312911113T. Motacek361011691
J. Martin10
WSep 19 · 19:05J. Martin1.671111113M. Chmelicek2.105990LSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371LSep 12 · 16:05J. Martin1.53911111102P. Pesout2.38111193123LSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113WSep 12 · 14:05J. Martin1.4061111113R. Hruby2.75114241LSep 11 · 21:35J. Martin1.7259121182D. Hons1.931111105113WSep 11 · 20:35J. Martin1.8361111113D. Hons1.83118361WSep 11 · 19:05S. Kafka1.6111117482J. Martin2.20861111113WSep 11 · 18:35R. Vosyka1.4013115862J. Martin2.751161111113WSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110
T. Motacek10
LSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621LSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar1.73891111113T. Motacek2.0011118642WSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113LSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek1.911156101L. Vosyka1.8061111123WSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113WSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371WSep 12 · 15:05J. Martin1.57128991T. Motacek2.25101111113
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