TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13152503
Played Sep 18Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811911118116114
Tomas Motacek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 90 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 2–0 Tomas Motacek Tomas Motacek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:22What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1498 vs Motacek 1461
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Motacek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Motacek 70%
Motacek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -1 · Motacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.73 / Motacek 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Flesar)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13152503
Flesar1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 16)
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 75 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it76% 65 of 86
Motacek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog63% won 10 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayMotacek0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderFlesar leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricFlesarMotacekF − MBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match42.530.5+12.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime218 / 413 vs 22 / 4052.8%55%218 / 413 vs 22 / 40Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.73/Motacek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 18 · 14:05M. Flesar50891111113T. Motacek4011118642
WAug 28 · 19:05M. Flesar351111133T. Motacek2164110
M. Flesar10
LSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161WSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181LSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113
T. Motacek10
WSep 19 · 18:05J. Martin2.004800T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 18 · 17:40T. Motacek1.731196101D. Hons2.0061111123WSep 18 · 16:35M. Chmelicek3.25951191T. Motacek1.3311119113WSep 18 · 15:35T. Motacek2.0011611113D. Hons1.73611621WSep 17 · 17:09P. Pesout2.255790T. Motacek1.571111113LSep 17 · 16:35P. Pesout2.382101111113T. Motacek1.5311128982LSep 17 · 15:35T. Motacek1.911156101L. Vosyka1.8061111123WSep 17 · 14:05T. Krcil2.00117121182T. Motacek1.73811147113WSep 12 · 17:34T. Motacek1.8391111113J. Martin1.83119371WSep 12 · 16:35T. Motacek1.531111113R. Hruby2.383880
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
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T. Motacek
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