TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13156721
Played Sep 19Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118411112119––
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:50 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeJan Manhal Jr to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 7-5
Point 59 set 4, 7-5 — our read held Jan Manhal Jr at 60.1%
59 points drawn · the score is 8 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Milan Flesar 2–3 Jan Manhal Jr Milan Flesar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1450 vs Jr 1462
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 20% vs Jr 80%
Jr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 40% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Jr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 2.10 / Jr 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jr)-1.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13156721
Flesar2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Jr1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 11 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeFlesar2wins
AwayJr3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderJr leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesarn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJr33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar2Jr3n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
S2Flesar1Jr4n = 5Jr took 4 of 5
S3Flesar3Jr2n = 5Flesar took 3 of 5
S4Flesar3Jr1n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S5Flesar1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricFlesarJrF − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match41.442.0−0.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarJrBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 419 vs 27 / 6052.3%45%219 / 419 vs 27 / 60Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrFlesar 2.10/Jr 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 4 · 16:35M. Flesar2889110J. Jr351111133
WAug 13 · 17:29M. Flesar45391111113J. Jr4611116992
LAug 13 · 16:35M. Flesar5111914892J. Jr483111211113
LAug 7 · 17:09M. Flesar4511861282J. Jr474111110113
WAug 7 · 16:05M. Flesar3851111113J. Jr34118871
M. Flesar10
LSep 19 · 13:10R. Neterda1.3611116113M. Flesar2.90731161LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181LSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040
J. Jr10
LSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113WSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:35M. Chmelicek1.80116961J. Jr1.9181111113WSep 16 · 15:35J. Jr1.83115711123L. Vana1.83811119102LSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850LSep 13 · 13:10M. Chmelicek1.806121112113J. Jr1.91111061492WSep 13 · 12:05K. Lahodny1.53781151J. Jr2.3811115113LSep 13 · 11:35P. Pesout2.7511118133J. Jr1.405911111
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