TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159517
Played Sep 19Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117113611116––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.90
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 3-3
Point 55 set 4, 3-3 — our read held Radek Neterda at 63.2%
55 points drawn · the score is 11 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Radek Neterda 12–3 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Neterda beat Flesar 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (68%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Neterda
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1533 vs Flesar 1471
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 40% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 50% vs Flesar 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -1 · Flesar +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (40%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.36 / Flesar 2.90
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Neterda)+2.0pp
TT Cup · #13159517
Neterda1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite63% won 57 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Flesar2.90
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 44 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back26% 18 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda8wins
AwayFlesar2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda100%4 of 4
AwayFlesar33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda4Flesar6n = 10Flesar took 6 of 10
S2Neterda9Flesar1n = 10Neterda took 9 of 10
S3Neterda8Flesar2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S4Neterda5Flesar1n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaFlesarN − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.529.2+8.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 423 vs 220 / 42050.6%52.4%214 / 423 vs 220 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.36/Flesar 2.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda331111113M. Flesar105410
LSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda32811761M. Flesar3711411113
WSep 4 · 17:34R. Neterda331111113M. Flesar187650
LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda4238111192M. Flesar51111199113
WJul 1 · 12:05R. Neterda48611911113M. Flesar4111511682
WJun 29 · 15:05R. Neterda4071111113M. Flesar32114891
WJun 11 · 13:15R. Neterda331111113M. Flesar164480
WJun 11 · 11:35R. Neterda3951111123M. Flesar331166101
WMay 31 · 17:45R. Neterda331111113M. Flesar196580
WMay 31 · 16:05R. Neterda4291111113M. Flesar35117891
R. Neterda10
LSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113WSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:05R. Neterda1.5731111672J. Jr2.25119911113LSep 17 · 13:10R. Neterda1.6781260L. Vosyka2.101114113WSep 17 · 12:35R. Neterda1.6761112133L. Vosyka2.1011510111LSep 17 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.73126127113R. Neterda2.001011101182LSep 17 · 10:35O. Pros1.8011711113R. Neterda1.91811451WSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:05R. Neterda1.831061111113L. Vana1.8312116682WSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651
M. Flesar10
WSep 19 · 12:35M. Flesar2.1011411113J. Jr1.67811291LSep 19 · 11:05R. Neterda1.801111113M. Flesar1.915410LSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290WSep 19 · 09:03J. Lovl1.25711712132M. Flesar3.751191110153LSep 19 · 08:35M. Flesar3.5010710D. Hons1.281211113LSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181LSep 19 · 06:35J. Lovl1.251112113M. Flesar3.7581080WSep 18 · 17:10M. Flesar1.5711911113M. Chmelicek2.25411241LSep 18 · 16:05M. Flesar2.381110961D. Hons1.5321211113WSep 18 · 15:05M. Flesar1.731112113M. Chmelicek2.0091040
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