TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143539
Played Sep 17Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111210711118
Radek Neterda
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 98 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 16–14 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Ruzicka
Correct
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1668 vs Neterda 1566
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 60% vs Neterda 80%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 70% vs Neterda 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +1 · Neterda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.73 / Neterda 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13143539
Ruzicka1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 81 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it92% 45 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it85% 64 of 75
Neterda2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 41 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back20% 14 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka6wins
AwayNeterda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%5 of 5
AwayNeterda80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S2Ruzicka6Neterda4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S3Ruzicka5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S4Ruzicka4Neterda2n = 6Ruzicka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaNeterdaR − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.6+2.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 425 vs 212 / 41752.2%50.8%222 / 425 vs 212 / 417Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.73/Neterda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka45111175113R. Neterda45761111102
WAug 30 · 13:45J. Ruzicka4211128113R. Neterda347101161
LAug 30 · 11:05J. Ruzicka2999110R. Neterda351111133
WAug 15 · 16:35J. Ruzicka331111113R. Neterda199820
WJul 30 · 15:35J. Ruzicka331111113R. Neterda229850
LJul 25 · 12:35J. Ruzicka27461161R. Neterda3711114113
LJul 15 · 12:35J. Ruzicka481061111102R. Neterda51121188123
WJul 2 · 21:05J. Ruzicka43101111113R. Neterda33128761
LJul 2 · 20:05J. Ruzicka27131310R. Neterda411515113
WJun 27 · 11:35J. Ruzicka3911116113R. Neterda29581151
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 17 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.361051181O. Pros3.0012116113WSep 17 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.671111113L. Vosyka2.104920LSep 12 · 09:38R. Fitl2.10111213113J. Ruzicka1.677141151LSep 12 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.736101111122R. Fitl2.00111267143WSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.53111147113R. Vavricka2.3875111152WSep 10 · 13:38R. Vosyka1.578480J. Ruzicka2.251111113WSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113WSep 10 · 11:35R. Fitl1.731358101J. Ruzicka2.00111111123LSep 10 · 10:35J. Ruzicka2.105480R. Vosyka1.661111113
R. Neterda10
LSep 17 · 10:35O. Pros1.8011711113R. Neterda1.91811451WSep 16 · 17:44R. Neterda1.671111133J. Jr2.1075110WSep 16 · 16:05R. Neterda1.831061111113L. Vana1.8312116682WSep 16 · 15:05R. Neterda1.5011711113M. Chmelicek2.50611651WSep 16 · 14:05R. Neterda1.911111113J. Jr1.806850WSep 15 · 13:50J. Joksch1.571198101R. Neterda2.2591111123LSep 15 · 12:35R. Pokorny1.801111138113R. Neterda1.9156151172WSep 15 · 11:35R. Neterda1.8012811133R. Fitl1.9110119111LSep 15 · 10:05J. Joksch1.50971111113R. Neterda2.5011118662WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102
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