TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13131727
Played Sep 15Finished
Radim Pokorny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151161315811117
Radek Neterda
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pokorny above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 98 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pokorny 21–16 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 16 of their 37 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:23What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pokorny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-16 in 37
Pokorny
Correct
gap of 5 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pokorny 1461 vs Neterda 1522
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pokorny 0% vs Neterda 40%
Neterda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pokorny 20% vs Neterda 60%
Neterda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pokorny -5 · Neterda +1
Pokorny
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPokorny 1.80 / Neterda 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Neterda)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13131727
Pokorny1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it79% 38 of 48
Neterda1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back19% 13 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePokorny5wins
AwayNeterda5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePokorny83.3%5 of 6
AwayNeterda100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pokorny6Neterda4n = 10Pokorny took 6 of 10
S2Pokorny5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S3Pokorny7Neterda3n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S4Pokorny4Neterda4n = 8split evenly
S5Pokorny1Neterda3n = 4Neterda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPokornyNeterdaP − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.2+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPokornyNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 316 vs 207 / 41048.7%50.5%154 / 316 vs 207 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaPokorny 1.80/Neterda 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pokorny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny4771113792R. Neterda531191111113
LAug 31 · 20:05R. Pokorny346711101R. Neterda3811114123
LAug 30 · 10:35R. Pokorny501012121152R. Neterda531214106113
WAug 10 · 12:05R. Pokorny3511211113R. Neterda37811991
LAug 6 · 13:35R. Pokorny3910111081R. Neterda3612112113
LAug 6 · 10:05R. Pokorny3812411292R. Neterda501011711113
WAug 4 · 13:05R. Pokorny3811115113R. Neterda31571181
WAug 4 · 11:05R. Pokorny5311101011113R. Neterda4281212282
WJul 27 · 14:35R. Pokorny351212113R. Neterda27101070
WJul 25 · 13:04R. Pokorny331111113R. Neterda155910
R. Pokorny10
LSep 15 · 13:20R. Fitl1.4411117113R. Pokorny2.63581191LSep 15 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361311113R. Pokorny3.0011660LSep 15 · 10:35R. Fitl1.5011115113R. Pokorny2.50761141LSep 14 · 13:05R. Fitl1.571111113R. Pokorny2.258790LSep 14 · 12:35R. Vosyka1.611111113R. Pokorny2.207270LSep 14 · 11:35R. Pokorny2.10661161R. Fitl1.6711118113WSep 14 · 10:05J. Joksch1.22111211982R. Pokorny4.001310911113LSep 13 · 21:45D. Hons1.8311911113R. Pokorny1.83311891WSep 13 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.671110491R. Pokorny2.1051211113LSep 13 · 19:35D. Hons1.6712116133R. Pokorny2.1010911111
R. Neterda10
WSep 15 · 13:50J. Joksch1.571198101R. Neterda2.2591111123WSep 15 · 11:35R. Neterda1.8012811133R. Fitl1.9110119111LSep 15 · 10:05J. Joksch1.50971111113R. Neterda2.5011118662WSep 13 · 09:10R. Neterda1.44123911123M. Chmelicek2.601011118102LSep 13 · 08:05R. Neterda1.8047111172R. Vavricka1.91111139113LSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda1.8361112762J. Jr1.831151011113WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480WSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662
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