TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13122323
Played Sep 13Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111151210711611
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 56.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 1–1 Jan Manhal Jr Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:43What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1488 vs Jr 1470
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 80% vs Jr 60%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 60% vs Jr 40%
Neterda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +4 · Jr +2
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.83 / Jr 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neterda)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13122323
Neterda1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Jr1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeNeterda1wins
AwayJr1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricNeterdaJrN − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.036.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaJrBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 406 vs 21 / 4850.5%43.8%205 / 406 vs 21 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.83/Jr 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 13 · 07:05R. Neterda4261112762J. Jr481151011113
WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda341112113J. Jr2491050
R. Neterda10
WSep 13 · 06:05R. Neterda1.441116113M. Chmelicek2.6361480WSep 11 · 13:40J. Lovl1.5312651182R. Neterda2.381011114113WSep 11 · 12:05R. Neterda2.20771111113R. Fnukal1.6111114882WSep 11 · 11:05R. Neterda2.009111111113R. Fitl1.7311137662LSep 11 · 10:05R. Neterda2.00771211102J. Lovl1.731111101123LSep 9 · 13:45R. Vavricka2.14714128113R. Neterda1.581112101152WSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 11:05R. Neterda1.617970R. Vavricka2.201111113WSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551
J. Jr10
WSep 13 · 06:35R. Vavricka1.57101171162J. Jr2.25129116113WSep 12 · 13:07M. Chmelicek1.33111011182J. Jr3.25412117113LSep 12 · 12:05K. Lahodny2.251112163J. Jr1.57810140WSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350LSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110
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