TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13120189
Played Sep 12Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141012111117811
Jan Manhal Jr
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jan Manhal Jr below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11
86 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–1 Jan Manhal Jr Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Chmelicek beat Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.33 / Jr 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Chmelicek)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13120189
Chmelicek1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 64 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it86% 38 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it67% 52 of 78
Jr3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 6 of 18
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayJr1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricChmelicekJrC − JBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match25.027.5−2.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekJrBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 479 vs 18 / 4547.4%40%227 / 479 vs 18 / 45Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.33/Jr 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.9%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 12 · 10:35M. Chmelicek331111113J. Jr228680
LJul 17 · 15:35M. Chmelicek176560J. Jr331111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 12 · 12:35M. Chmelicek2.004970T. Motacek1.731111113LSep 12 · 11:05K. Lahodny1.91611411113M. Chmelicek1.8011411742WSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113WSep 9 · 17:35M. Chmelicek1.73111117113P. Pesout2.00891971WSep 9 · 16:05P. Pesout1.619390M. Chmelicek2.201111113WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123
J. Jr10
LSep 12 · 12:05K. Lahodny2.251112163J. Jr1.57810140WSep 12 · 11:35T. Motacek2.0011611652J. Jr1.73711911113LSep 12 · 10:35J. Jr1.738680M. Chmelicek2.001111113LSep 12 · 09:10R. Vavricka1.671215113J. Jr2.10101350LSep 12 · 08:35J. Jr1.91881191R. Vavricka1.8011115113LSep 12 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.44111111113J. Jr2.63139891WSep 12 · 06:35R. Fitl1.7377111162J. Jr2.00111183113LSep 11 · 17:10J. Martin1.531111133J. Jr2.3889110LSep 11 · 16:05J. Jr2.2011511972J. Martin1.61711911113LSep 11 · 15:05J. Jr2.1011581462L. Vosyka1.678111112113
Upcoming Matches
M. Chmelicek
J. Jr
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.