TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103419
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311911––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Pesout to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Petr Pesout at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 10–10 Martin Chmelicek Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Pesout
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1406 vs Chmelicek 1348
Pesout
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 80% vs Chmelicek 40%
Pesout
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 70% vs Chmelicek 40%
Pesout
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout +2 · Chmelicek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Pesout) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 1.61 / Chmelicek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Pesout)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13103419
Pesout1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 26 of 45
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Chmelicek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePesout8wins
AwayChmelicek2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPesout leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesout87.5%7 of 8
AwayChmelicekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout8Chmelicek2n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S2Pesout5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pesout8Chmelicek2n = 10Pesout took 8 of 10
S4Pesout6Chmelicek2n = 8Pesout took 6 of 8
S5Pesout1Chmelicek2n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPesoutChmelicekP − CBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.636.6+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 325 vs 224 / 47446.8%47.3%152 / 325 vs 224 / 474Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesoutPesout 1.61/Chmelicek 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Pesout · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 12:05P. Pesout—11711113M. Chmelicek—911941
LAug 30 · 17:35P. Pesout—11511852M. Chmelicek—811611113
LAug 30 · 16:05P. Pesout—103111182M. Chmelicek—121188113
WAug 29 · 16:05P. Pesout—111211113M. Chmelicek—914791
WJul 19 · 09:34P. Pesout—11117113M. Chmelicek—791181
WJul 19 · 06:35P. Pesout—1111113M. Chmelicek—9780
WJul 18 · 13:05P. Pesout—12911113M. Chmelicek—1011861
WJul 18 · 12:35P. Pesout—1111113M. Chmelicek—6990
WJun 14 · 09:35P. Pesout—41113133M. Chmelicek—11511111
WJun 14 · 06:35P. Pesout—111178113M. Chmelicek—68111152
P. Pesout10
WSep 9 · 15:05P. Pesout2.101311911133M. Rojka1.67156119112WSep 9 · 14:05P. Pesout2.00111112113T. Motacek1.73981481LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562
M. Chmelicek10
WSep 9 · 15:35T. Motacek1.7371151172M. Chmelicek2.00117111113WSep 9 · 14:35M. Chmelicek2.00111011113M. Rojka1.73612591LSep 9 · 13:15J. Lovl1.44891111113M. Chmelicek2.6311117962LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek2.2061111101J. Lovl1.6111913123LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113
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