TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101154
Played Sep 9Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115117––––
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 62.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 5–7 Martin Chmelicek Radek Neterda has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:20What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1454 vs Chmelicek 1361
Neterda
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 0% vs Chmelicek 40%
Chmelicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 30% vs Chmelicek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -5 · Chmelicek -1
Neterda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Neterda)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13101154
Neterda1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 56 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it93% 25 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it72% 39 of 54
Chmelicek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda5wins
AwayChmelicek5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda80%4 of 5
AwayChmelicek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Neterda4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S3Neterda6Chmelicek4n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S4Neterda5Chmelicek3n = 8Neterda took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaChmelicekN − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.335.6+1.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime199 / 396 vs 222 / 46850.3%47.4%199 / 396 vs 222 / 468Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Hit
What we said
56.1%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 1 · 11:05R. Neterda—11311113M. Chmelicek—711361
LJun 17 · 17:45R. Neterda—9680M. Chmelicek—1111113
LJun 17 · 16:35R. Neterda—117211122M. Chmelicek—611118143
WMay 31 · 14:05R. Neterda—1111113M. Chmelicek—7470
LMar 8 · 22:35R. Neterda—761171M. Chmelicek—11115113
WMar 8 · 20:35R. Neterda—12811113M. Chmelicek—1011541
LFeb 28 · 19:05R. Neterda—8141291M. Chmelicek—111214113
WFeb 27 · 12:35R. Neterda—11511133M. Chmelicek—7117111
LFeb 8 · 20:35R. Neterda—811581M. Chmelicek—11811113
WDec 31 · 18:40R. Neterda—151111133M. Chmelicek—1716111
R. Neterda10
LSep 8 · 21:03J. Vidourek2.0081111113R. Neterda1.73116551LSep 8 · 20:05R. Neterda1.44811761M. Flesar2.6311411113LSep 8 · 19:05R. Neterda1.618119101J. Vidourek2.2011611123LSep 8 · 18:05R. Neterda1.73811811L. Vosyka2.0011911113LSep 7 · 13:43R. Neterda1.67131311392R. Fitl2.101115911113LSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482WSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:35R. Neterda1.80111112113R. Fitl1.91431491LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.