TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103895
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191181214118––
Tomas Motacek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Motacek to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Tomas Motacek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 84 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Motacek at 57.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 1–2 Tomas Motacek Petr Pesout has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Motacek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1373 vs Motacek 1417
Motacek
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 60% vs Motacek 80%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 50% vs Motacek 70%
Motacek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -1 · Motacek +3
Motacek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Motacek) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Motacek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 2.00 / Motacek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Motacek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13103895
Pesout2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Motacek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePesout1wins
AwayMotacek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderMotacek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout1Motacek2n = 3Motacek took 2 of 3
S2Pesout3Motacek0n = 3Pesout took 3 of 3
S3Pesout0Motacek3n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S4Pesout0Motacek3n = 3Motacek took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPesoutMotacekP − MBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.344.3−9.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutMotacekBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 323 vs 11 / 2046.4%55%150 / 323 vs 11 / 20Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MotacekPesout 2.00/Motacek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Motacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout—611881T. Motacek—11811113
WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout—111247113T. Motacek—910111192
LAug 29 · 14:05P. Pesout—611651T. Motacek—11911113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182
T. Motacek10
WSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101WSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113LSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192WSep 5 · 17:44R. Hruby1.91117891T. Motacek1.8091111113WSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123WSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:35T. Motacek1.671158101R. Hruby2.1091111123LAug 29 · 17:35T. Motacek2.3711511492M. Chmelicek1.52711911113WAug 29 · 16:35R. Jaros1.911850T. Motacek1.801111113
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