TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101529
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61111911131012––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:49 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 83 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jan Lovl at 54.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 1–2 Jan Lovl Martin Chmelicek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1343 vs Lovl 1538
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 195 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Lovl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 40% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -2 · Lovl -3
Lovl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 2.20 / Lovl 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Lovl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13101529
Chmelicek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 59 of 150
Down 0–1, comes back14% 11 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 50
Lovl1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeChmelicek1wins
AwayLovl2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLovl leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicekn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLovl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek0Lovl3n = 3Lovl took 3 of 3
S2Chmelicek2Lovl1n = 3Chmelicek took 2 of 3
S3Chmelicek1Lovl2n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S4Chmelicek1Lovl2n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricChmelicekLovlC − LBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match40.342.0−1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime222 / 470 vs 171 / 33147.2%51.7%222 / 470 vs 171 / 331Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlChmelicek 2.20/Lovl 1.61
Hit
What we said
60.5%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 9 · 11:35M. Chmelicek—61111101J. Lovl—11913123
LJun 30 · 14:05M. Chmelicek—781181J. Lovl—11119113
WFeb 20 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—911711113J. Lovl—11411672
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 9 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.61711911113M. Chmelicek2.2011711592LSep 9 · 10:05R. Neterda1.731111113M. Chmelicek2.009570LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172
J. Lovl10
LSep 9 · 12:05R. Neterda2.101111113J. Lovl1.676320LSep 9 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57114771R. Vavricka2.2581111113LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113
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