TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13101175
Played Sep 9Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411711711––
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 4–0 Richard Vavricka Richard Vavricka has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:29What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lovl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Lovl
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1547 vs Vavricka 1448
Lovl
Wrong
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 40% vs Vavricka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 60% vs Vavricka 30%
Lovl
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -2 · Vavricka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.57 / Vavricka 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Lovl)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13101175
Lovl1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 67 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it93% 42 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 56 of 72
Vavricka2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 24 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLovl4wins
AwayVavricka0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLovl leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovl100%3 of 3
AwayVavrickan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl3Vavricka1n = 4Lovl took 3 of 4
S2Lovl2Vavricka2n = 4split evenly
S3Lovl3Vavricka1n = 4Lovl took 3 of 4
S4Lovl3Vavricka0n = 3Lovl took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLovlVavrickaL − VBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match43.036.0+7.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 329 vs 104 / 20451.7%51%170 / 329 vs 104 / 204Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.57/Vavricka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl—111115113R. Vavricka—761751
WMay 31 · 11:35J. Lovl—1211113R. Vavricka—10690
WJan 1 · 18:35J. Lovl—791211123R. Vavricka—1111109102
WJan 1 · 15:05J. Lovl—12511113R. Vavricka—1011481
J. Lovl10
LSep 8 · 13:34R. Fitl1.80114911113J. Lovl1.9161111672LSep 8 · 12:05R. Fitl1.8311711113J. Lovl1.83211871WSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113WSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681
R. Vavricka10
WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390WSep 8 · 12:35R. Vavricka1.5711311113O. Pros2.25711791LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113
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