TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13095101
Played Sep 8Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117311117119––
Ondrej Pros
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Ondrej Pros below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 60.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 4–1 Ondrej Pros Ondrej Pros has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vavricka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Vavricka
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1412 vs Pros 1420
Pros
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 0% vs Pros 20%
Pros
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 10% vs Pros 40%
Pros
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -5 · Pros -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Vavricka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pros form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.57 / Pros 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Vavricka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13095101
Vavricka1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 35 of 56
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Pros2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 34 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back21% 12 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVavricka4wins
AwayPros1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderVavricka leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka100%3 of 3
AwayProsn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka3Pros2n = 5Vavricka took 3 of 5
S2Vavricka3Pros2n = 5Vavricka took 3 of 5
S3Vavricka4Pros1n = 5Vavricka took 4 of 5
S4Vavricka2Pros1n = 3Vavricka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home240%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVavrickaProsV − PBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match39.234.0+5.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaProsBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 202 vs 113 / 24550.5%46.1%102 / 202 vs 113 / 245Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.57/Pros 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vavricka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 31 · 21:40R. Vavricka—7119121O. Pros—11911143
WJul 31 · 18:35R. Vavricka—111011113O. Pros—812991
WJul 24 · 18:35R. Vavricka—1111113O. Pros—4850
WJan 10 · 11:05R. Vavricka—1111133O. Pros—87110
WDec 26 · 11:35R. Vavricka—581111113O. Pros—11118772
R. Vavricka10
WSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390LSep 8 · 11:05R. Fitl1.50711911113R. Vavricka2.5011711842LSep 8 · 10:35J. Lovl1.57111115113R. Vavricka2.25761751LSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113LSep 7 · 12:35R. Fitl1.50115413113R. Vavricka2.50611111182LSep 7 · 11:35R. Vavricka2.20711691R. Neterda1.6111411113WSep 7 · 10:05M. Holub1.73111011942R. Vavricka2.00912811113LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771
O. Pros10
LSep 8 · 13:05R. Vavricka1.531111113O. Pros2.386390LSep 8 · 11:35O. Pros2.7534121162J. Lovl1.401111107113LSep 8 · 10:05R. Fitl1.331111113O. Pros3.259770LSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143WSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143LSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 3 · 10:35O. Pros2.0011811113M. Chmelicek1.73711871WSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113
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